Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
I have been away for just over a week, during which what might be described as considerable trauma has occurred but the oil price is almost exactly as I left it, notwithstanding some humps in the road. Greece has defaulted which has strengthened the dollar and there is even more crude oil and product around than before, likely to be added to by Iranian crude in the next six months.
On that front the deadline was last night but has been extended until July the 7th, pictures of all the top teams assembling in Vienna lead me to think that red lines have been crossed and humble pie eaten particularly by the Supreme Leader. Inspections will need to be carried out and sanctions will not be withdrawn immediately but expect to see Iranian tankers starting their engines before long.
In the expectation of a bit of supply competition Opec has upped its game, in June depending on who you believe the cartel may have been pumping at 32.1m b/d, remember when I wrote after the June 5 meeting that they might as well not have kept to the 30m b/d target…..
The API stats last night foxed the analysts again, they were looking for a draw of 2m barrels when it turned out to be a build of roughly the same amount…..
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