Australian dollar uncertainty over wage growth, unemployment


In his speech at a conference in Sydney today deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe noted that wage growth in Australia remains slack, raising concerns amongst the Australian population about losing their jobs,

“One other change to the global monetary transmission mechanism that has echoes in Australia is the behavior of wages. As in many other countries, wage growth in Australia has been quite subdued and lower than would be suggested by most of our standard models,” he told the conference

“Increased job uncertainty is likely to be one of the factors here, with consumer surveys showing high levels of concern about future unemployment”. He also added.

Inflation in Australia is drifting below the central bank’s target rate with the governor mentioning that lower wages were a prime reason behind the trend,

“This low level of wage growth is contributing to quite low rates of inflation in a range of service industries”.

On the topic of the Australian dollar, the Mr. Lowe noted that the currency is still overvalued with external forces playing a big role,

“The scale of global monetary stimulus means that our exchange rate remains relatively high given the state of our overall economy,” he said

“The end result here is that global developments have left us with a higher exchange rate and lower interest rates than would otherwise have been the case. We may not like this configuration, but developments abroad give us little choice.”

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported today that retail sales increased by 0.4% last month to $23.88 billion significantly higher than the 0.2% last month.

The number is a good sign and there should be more good news to come concerning the retail sector noted Deutsche Bank chief economist Adam Boyton,

"Looking ahead, we think there is a reasonable prospect of a lift in the retail sector, especially given lower petrol prices, lower interest rates and signs of renewed strength in the housing market." He said

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trades with negative bias, holds above 1.0700 as traders await US PCE Price Index

EUR/USD trades with negative bias, holds above 1.0700 as traders await US PCE Price Index

EUR/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a two-week high, around the 1.0740 area touched the previous day. Spot prices trade around the 1.0725-1.0720 region and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar price dynamics ahead of the crucial US data.

EUR/USD News

USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy

USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy

USD/JPY has come under intense buying pressure, surging past 156.00 after the Bank of Japan kept the key rate unchanged but tweaked its policy statement. The BoJ maintained its fiscal year 2024 and 2025 core inflation forecasts, disappointing the Japanese Yen buyers. 

USD/JPY News

Gold price flatlines as traders look to US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus

Gold price flatlines as traders look to US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus

Gold price lacks any firm intraday direction and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. The weaker US GDP print and a rise in US inflation benefit the metal amid subdued USD demand. Hawkish Fed expectations cap the upside as traders await the release of the US PCE Price Index.

Gold News

Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap

Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap

Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.

Read more

US economy: Slower growth with stronger inflation

US economy: Slower growth with stronger inflation

The US Dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures