Abe wins with record low support, EUR,GBP better bid

Market Brief

The Japanese PM Abe’s LDP wins Sunday polls, yet with record low support to Abenomics. The Tankan index came in softer for large manufacturing composite, slightly better for non-manufacturing activity and sufficiently discouraging for all small caps. JPY-crosses traded mixed, Nikkei stocks opened the week 1.57% lower. USD/JPY saw support at Ichimoku base line 117.85. Trend and momentum indicators remain negative, and we see consolidation before renewed attempt above 120.00. EUR/JPY retreated to 146.84, deeper sell-off is expected toward Ichimoku baseline, 145.93.

AUD/USD extended weakness to 0.8204 as government revised its year-end forecast for a wider cash deficit of AUD 40.4 billion from an early 29.8 billion due to weaker iron ore prices. “Primarily as a result of collapse in iron ore prices by over 30% and weaker than expected wage growth, tax receipts have been revised down” said Treasurer Joe Hockey. Spot iron ore delivered to China remains below $70. We expect AUD/USD to continue its steady slide toward 80 cents.

In China, the USD/CNY is still subject to offers above 6.20+. Support is building above the 200-dma, currently at 6.1804. Chinese bureau of statistics is expected to announce improved GDP results this month. The key question is whether China achieved its 7.5% growth target in 2014 or not.

EUR/USD opened the week above its 21-dma (1.2434), with short-term technicals still pointing on more correction. The pair is expected to make higher attempts before Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Resistance is seen at 1.2540 (50-dma), then 1.2600 (Nov 19th high). We remain seller on rallies given that Fed/ECB divergence to inevitably continue weighing on the pair walking into 2015. EUR/GBP upside correction strengthens. A daily close above 0.7935 (MACD pivot) should push the cross higher. Decent option related offers trail below 0.7875 (Friday low) for today expiry.

Better bid, GBP/USD tests Friday high of 1.5747 at the time of writing. The candle pattern analysis print a formation to bullish engulfing (conviction 5/9) signaling a short-term bullish reversal pattern. Option bids trail above 1.5700 and will likely give further support today. However, we are heading into an event-full week in GBP with CPI, jobs data and retail sales a due on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Soft economic read is a risk for GBP-bulls; key support stands at 1.5542 (Dec 8th low).

Today’s economic calendar: Swiss November Producer & Import Prices m/m & y/y, Norwegian November Trade Balance, Italian October General Government Debt, UK December CBI Trends Total Orders & Selling Prices, US December Empire Manufacturing, Canadian November Existing Home Sales m/m, US November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, US November Manufacturing (SIC) Production, US December NAHB Housing Market Index, US October Net Long-Term TIC Flows and Total Net TIC Flows.