EUR/USD Forecast: shy recovery not enough


The EUR/USD trades slightly positive having advance up to 1.3668 intraday, but struggling for the most around the 1.3650 critical area. With no fundamental data released so far in Europe, the pair is being affected by ECB talks, with Governing Council Nowotny saying inflation in the EU will likely stay significantly below 2% for the this year and upcoming 2015. 

Technically, the timid advance is not enough according to the 4 hours chart, where indicators remain weak around their midlines, as price hovers right above a still bearish 20 SMA: price needs at least to establish itself above the 1.3680 Fibonacci level, 61.8% retracement of this year bullish run, to be able to continue advancing, eyeing then 1.3730/45 price zone. In the meantime, risk remains to the downside, with a break below 1.3610 pointing for a quick run towards 1.3570 first, and looking for lower lows later near the 1.3520 price zone.

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