The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Conflicting signals. We probably have to pass today’s main event, ECB, before any major move will take place. Strictly technical the rise from Tuesday’s low point looks like a minor bear flag hence calling for a new trend low (the case will gain a lot of credibility below 1.3123) but on the other hand the still severe stretch (55d Bollinger bands has not been outside the 233d one since the Dec peak last year) is a clear warning that un upside reaction lurking around the corner.
USD/JPY: Dark cloud cover candle. The selling just beneath the 105.45 (Jan 02 high) key resistance yesterday created a mildly bearish dark cloud cover candle suggesting that more losses possible are underway. For today we however need a 104.72 break to kick off a new round of selling.
AUD/USD: Seeking a 0.9372 – 9402 sell. Our assumption of a continued decline yesterday was proven wrong and the development forces to make a small adjustment to the short term wave count, The bullish candle yesterday hints that 0.9374 might not have been the correction peak and that a correction peak should be sought closer to 0.9402.
USD/CAD: Yesterday's bearish print points down. It looks like we have to wait a little longer for the next 1.10 attempt. Yesterday's candle is bearish and opens up for another leg lower in a so far incomplete correctional three-wave sequence, with an ideal target at 1.0755. But of course, the backdrop picture is bullish so let’s scrap this idea, should the market decide to turn back north from here and take back 1.0943.
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