Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
Summary
One of the biggest stories on the global economic arena remains the weakness in commodity prices, particularly oil. Precipitous decline in crude oil over the past several months has been expected to be a net positive for many developed and emerging countries including the US, Europe, India, and China, which are net oil importers. However, oil and commodity exporters such as Canada and Australia have already been severely hit by decline in commodities. Adding to this diverging monetary policy around the world, we get a two-speed global economic recovery. Yet, both short and long term outlook continues to improve, as findings of Dukascopy Sentiment Index survey showed in March.
Professors’ sentiment towards Europe’s six month economic outlook skyrocketed in March, jumping to 0.49 up from 0.39 in the preceding month. It appears the the short and long term economic expectations have brightened as ECB has launched its massive 1 trillion QE programme on March 5 and Governor Mario Draghi's has stated a sustained economic recovery is finally taking hold in the currency bloc thanks to the central bank's stimulus as well as cheaper oil prices.
While uncertainty remains over the timing of US interest rate hike and Canada suffers from plunging oil prices, professors were confident in the region’s economic future. Both six-month and three-year economic outlook improved in March.
Central banks in China, Australia, Japan and New Zealand decided to maintain their accommodative monetary policy stance in March to support their economies, further indicating that the region’s economy has been struggling due to a number of international and domestic headwinds. Thus, six-month and three-year economic sentiment index declined in March, reflecting professors’ concerns over the Asian-Pacific economy’s health.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades with negative bias, holds above 1.0700 as traders await US PCE Price Index
EUR/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a two-week high, around the 1.0740 area touched the previous day. Spot prices trade around the 1.0725-1.0720 region and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar price dynamics ahead of the crucial US data.
USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy
USD/JPY has come under intense buying pressure, surging past 156.00 after the Bank of Japan kept the key rate unchanged but tweaked its policy statement. The BoJ maintained its fiscal year 2024 and 2025 core inflation forecasts, disappointing the Japanese Yen buyers.
Gold price flatlines as traders look to US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus
Gold price lacks any firm intraday direction and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. The weaker US GDP print and a rise in US inflation benefit the metal amid subdued USD demand. Hawkish Fed expectations cap the upside as traders await the release of the US PCE Price Index.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US economy: Slower growth with stronger inflation
The US Dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.