Key Risks Warn Against Chasing USDCHF Lower


Technical Bias: Neutral

Key Takeaways
  • Swiss franc continues to struggle against US dollar.
  • An important triangle to play a key role moving ahead for the USDCHF pair.
  • USDCHF support seen at 0.8980 and resistance ahead at 0.9020.

The US has been dollar consolidating against the Swiss franc just below a critical resistance zone, as the USDCHF awaits a short-term breakout.

Technical Analysis

There is a triangle forming on the hourly timeframe for the USDCHF pair with resistance around an important technical level. The triangle resistance area coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the last major drop from the 0.9040 high to 0.8905 low. The pair has struggled a lot of times around the mentioned resistance zone, but the bullish momentum remains intact in the short term. If the pair manages to climb higher, break the triangle resistance zone and settle above it, then it might open the doors for further upside acceleration towards the previous high, followed by the test of the 0.9060 level. The pair is trading above all three key simple moving averages on the hourly timeframe, which adds value to the bullish view moving ahead. 

Chart

On the downside, initial support can be seen around an important confluence zone of 100 and 50 hourly SMA, followed by the 200 hourly SMA. If sellers gain control, then a test of the triangle support area is possible in the short term. However, a break of triangle support area looks difficult as of now, as the sentiment still favors the US dollar against the Swiss franc. There are some important risk events scheduled during this week, which might act as a catalyst for the pair moving ahead. 

Overall, as long as the triangle support holds and RSI stays above the 50 level on the hourly timeframe, then more gains cannot be denied in the short term. 

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