A short and late blog as I have been busy with meetings, today’s is primarily for record.
Another bad week for the oil price with WTI down 6% and Brent down 4%. The price has fallen again today taking WTI down below $48 at $47.55 and Brent at $53.75. There are a few things to bear in mind, especially if you, like me, think that oil will if not test the February lows, then have a look at them. Technically WTI at least is in another bear market being well over 20% off the June 10 peak and for the time being things dont look too clever. And remember that Friday’s fall was against a softer dollar…
The three things to bear in mind are, the general oversupply into the market by a number of participants, shortly to be added to by Iran, the high stock levels, particularly in the US and the rig count which has given the indication of turning. On the stock front the numbers are a touch worrying, with a very strong summer season of demand coming to an end, if they dont start coming down soon then be very afraid, as with the driving season ending on Labor Day on 7th September demand for product will evaporate in the hiatus season before the winter. The rig count was bad on two fronts, firstly +19 overall and +21 in oil is by any understanding a sharp rally, made worse by the fact that the rig count was not lowered in any major basin of the States last week.
Another bad week for the oil price with WTI down 6% and Brent down 4%. The price has fallen again today taking WTI down below $48 at $47.55 and Brent at $53.75. There are a few things to bear in mind, especially if you, like me, think that oil will if not test the February lows, then have a look at them. Technically WTI at least is in another bear market being well over 20% off the June 10 peak and for the time being things dont look too clever. And remember that Friday’s fall was against a softer dollar…
The three things to bear in mind are, the general oversupply into the market by a number of participants, shortly to be added to by Iran, the high stock levels, particularly in the US and the rig count which has given the indication of turning. On the stock front the numbers are a touch worrying, with a very strong summer season of demand coming to an end, if they dont start coming down soon then be very afraid, as with the driving season ending on Labor Day on 7th September demand for product will evaporate in the hiatus season before the winter. The rig count was bad on two fronts, firstly +19 overall and +21 in oil is by any understanding a sharp rally, made worse by the fact that the rig count was not lowered in any major basin of the States last week.
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