So, what's next for majors?

It was first the ECB coming with a dovish stance early June putting the EUR under pressure and giving hopes for dollar bulls. But the FED won the title of the party pooper of the month:  a more dovish than expected economic forecast sent the greenback down across the board. The weekly charts however, show the movements had been pretty shallow, with most majors trading within previous weeks’ range, exception made by CAD and GBP both boosted by rising oil on Iraq woes. 

But neither EUR, JPY no AUD managed to post a higher high, and the EUR is no doubts among the worst performers.  So, what’s next from here? 

From the fundamental point of view, indeed Pound remains the strongest and price action confirms it. Some mild weak numbers were so far not enough to affect the strength of the currency, and it will take more than a month of disappointing readings to take it down. In the meantime, market will continue pricing in a rate hike by the ends of this year, and positive macro data will only fuel the rally. For this week, the UK will offer inflation hearings and its financial stability report, but the key event will be GDP readings on Friday: a strong final number for the quarter, currently at 0.8% should continue to support the bullish trend in the midterm. 

In Europe, the week will be far more entertained, starting on Monday with the EU and several individual countries Services and Manufacturing PMI readings: the numbers had been for the most, weak over this year, and disappointing numbers there will weight on the EUR, risking a downward move despite general dollar weakness. On Friday, confidence in Europe and inflation in Germany are the news to watch, neither expected to surprise to the upside. 

In the US, the lack of data seen over these last few days will be compensated by far: manufacturing, housing, consumer confidence, consumption readings and GDP will all be released. It will take all of them to surprise to the upside, to start building up confidence in the greenback again, yet is not something to take for granted.

For the most, the majority of major crosses lack a clear trend, and despite the calendar, there are little hopes to see some stronger definitions in the days to come. Currencies self strength/weakness is what it matters these days, and Pound along with commodity currencies stand among the strongest, while EUR and USD are on the other side of the spectrum: watch for data to support such and trade accordingly. Trading crosses continues to be the preferred choice, particularly EURNZD, EURCAD, and EURAUD.