Tech sentiment stays cautious as Anthropic enjoying its "ChatGPT moment"

EU Mid-Market Update: Tech sentiment stays cautious as Anthropic enjoying its "ChatGPT moment"; Gold stages comeback >$5,000; Volatility tempers

Notes/observations

- Market tone remains shaped by the global tech adjustment. Tuesday’s US-led software and semiconductor pullback reverberated across Asia, weighing on Japanese equities and adding pressure to European AI-exposed software (e.g., SAP, Sage, Rightmove). Broader European indices have held up relatively well due to resource stocks, banks, and strong single-name earnings. US tech sentiment remains soft after AMD’s after-hours drop on cautious Q1 revenue guidance, reinforcing the decelerating-AI-cycle narrative.

- Macro is looking through Eurozone CPI and final services PMI prints into Thursday’s ECB and BoE decisions, where both are expected to hold policy

- Commodities show renewed volatility. Precious metals continue to rebound dramatically from last week’s forced liquidation dynamics, with gold back above $5,000/oz and silver approaching $90/oz amid thin liquidity and squeeze-like conditions. Central-bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty continue to anchor medium-term gold demand, even as short-term volatility remains elevated. Oil trades slightly softer after a 1.5% rebound in the prior session, with Brent near $67/bbl as traders weigh incremental geopolitical risk centered on Iran against expectations for additional OPEC supply and forthcoming US inventory data.

- For years, software firms sold investors on the "annuity" of the office seat; with the launch of Anthropic’s "Claude Cowork" agents, those seats are starting to look like folding chairs. This sudden automation of high-value workflow has punctured the sector’s valuation balloon, sending multiples into a 30% air-pocket as markets stop pricing SaaS as a compounding growth story and start treating it as a melting ice cube. As the contagion spreads from Sydney’s bourses to the leveraged balance sheets of private credit, the "ghost in the machine" is no longer just a metaphor but a systemic threat to the very plumbing of the private markets.

- Earnings are driving European dispersion: European banks delivered a busy tape (UBS beat on stronger underlying profit but softer wealth inflows; Credit Agricole weighed by costs/provisions; Santander drew a negative reaction tied to its $12B Webster deal and integration burden). In healthcare, guidance mattered more than Q4 numbers, with Novo Nordisk hit hard on cautious 2026 outlook while GSK beat but flagged FX headwinds. Energy and cyclicals were mixed: Equinor’s EBIT beat was helped by an arbitration gain, but the 2026 buyback reset disappointed; utilities were steadier.

- TTN Summary of Cisco AI summit amid software names sell-off: Nvidia said the software industry is facing a fundamental "reinvention of the entire computing stack" as the world pivots from explicit coding to "implicit programming," where agentic models that reason and plan autonomously threaten to bypass the traditional software seat entirely. Valuation multiples are being shredded because AI-driven "digital labor" is beginning to provide "near instantaneous insights" that outstrip the lifetime economics of underlying software assets, turning legacy workflow tools into potential stranded assets. With OpenAI aiming for products "100% written with AI agents" by 2026 and model capabilities doubling every few months, investors are dumping software names that look like mere wrappers in a world of "infinite demand for intelligence."

- Asia closed higher with KOSPI +1.6%. EU indices -0.2% to +1.0%. US futures -0.2% to +0.2%. Gold +2.1%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent +0.6%, WTI +0.8%; Crypto: BTC -2.5%, ETH -1.1%.

Asia

- China Jan RatingDog PMI Services: 52.3 v 51.9e (35th month of expansion).

- Australia Jan Final PMI Services: 56.3 v 56.0 prelim (confirmed 24th month of expansion).

- Japan Jan Final PMI Services: 53.7 v 53.4 prelim (confirmed 15th month of expansion).

- New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 5.3%e.

- New Zealand Q4 Employment Change Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: +0.2% v -0.1%e.

- New Zealand Jan ANZ Commodity Price M/M: +2.0% v -2.1% prior.

- BOJ said not coming to the rescue of any PM Takaichi-driven bond 'rout'. central bank has set a 'high' hurdle for bond market intervention.

Global conflict/tensions

Trump: We are still talking with Iran, there will be more than one meeting.

Europe

- UK Times Shadow MPC: Votes to leave rates unchanged; the vote was 9-0.

Americas

- US government funding package was passed, ending the partial shutdown and was signed it into law by President Trump.

- Fed Gov Miran has reportedly resigned his White House position as chair of the White House Council of Economic Adviser (**Note: Miran had promise to resign from his White House role if a new Fed governor had not been appointed by end-January.

Trade

- US might publish previously announced South Korea tariff increase in the US federal register.

Energy:

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -11.1M v -0.2M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.06% at 618.32, FTSE +0.97% at 10,410.36, DAX -0.22% at 24,720.04, CAC-40 +0.58% at 8,226.67, IBEX-35 +0.03% at 18,125.08, FTSE MIB +0.62% at 46,706.50, SMI +0.95% at 10,412.09, S&P 500 Futures -0.03%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open generally higher but faltered as the session wore on; risk appetite seen weighing large dose of earnings; among better performing sectors are energy and consumer discretionary; lagging sectors include health care and financials; Zurich Insurance raises offer fro Beazley focus on US ADP employment change coming out later in the day; R Stahl to be acquired by Henkel; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Alphabet, Eli Lilly, Qualcomm and ARM Holding.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Carlsberg [CARLB.DK] +3.0% (earnings; conf call comments).

- Financials: UBS [UBSG.CH] -4.0% (earnings; buyback), Beazley Group [BEZ.UK] +8.5% (increased offer by Zurich Insurance).

- Healthcare: GSK [GSK.UK] +2.5% (earnings), Novo Nordisk [NOVOB.DK] -17.5% (earnings; guidance; buyback), Novartis [NOVN.CH] -1.5% (earnings).

- Technology: SAP [SAP.DE] -3.5% (sell-off in software stocks continues), Infineon [IFX.DE] -2.5% (earnings; guidance; conf call comments).

Speakers

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Jan Minutes reiterated stance that expected rate to remain unchanged for some time. Could tolerate minor deviations in data outcomes without immediately needing to adjust the course. Inflation would be low this year, primarily due to temporary factors.

- Iceland Central Bank (Sedibanki) Policy Statement noted underlying inflationary pressures continued to be persistent. Future decisions to be data dependent.

- Russia President Putin spoke with China’s Xi via phone. Noted that trade with China was over $200B annually for the past three years. China President Xi stated that relations between the two countries were advancing in the right trajectory.

- South Korea Presidential spokesperson stated that the top 10 conglomerates targeted 51,600 hires in 2026.

- China PBoC to strengthen financial support for consumption sector.

Currencies/fixed income

- USD was steady against the majors ahead of key rate decisions on Thurs (BOE and ECB). The US will also get the ADP Employment data in today’s session (**Reminder: Friday's nonfarm report was delayed due to the partial government shutdown).

- EUR/USD at 1.1830 in the session. ECB expected keep its policy rates unchanged on Thursday, but lower-than-expected inflation might lead to a cut later this year.

- USD/JPY at 156.50 area with focus on Sunday’s Japanese elections.

- 10-year German Bund yield last at 2.87%, France 10-year Oat at 3.45% and 10-year Gilt yield at 4.51% 10-year Treasury yield: 4.27%; 10-year JGB: 2.24%.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Jan Preliminary CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.7%e; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.3% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.6%e.

- (RU) Russia Jan Services PMI: 53.1 v 52.3h prior; Composite PMI: 52.1 v 50.0 prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Jan PMI (whole economy): 50.0 v 47.7 prior(avoids a 4th month of contraction).

- (SE) Sweden Jan PMI Services: 54.3 v 57.0e; PMI Composite: 54.8 v 56.0 prior.

- (AT) Austria Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.7% v +0.3 % prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 3.8% prior.

- (ES) Spain Jan Services PMI: 53.5 v 56.8e (29th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.9 v 55.4e.

- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedibank) left the 7-Day Term Deposit Rate at 7.25%.

- (IT) Italy Jan Services PMI: 52.9 v 51.3e (14th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 51.4 v 50.1e.

- (FR) France Jan Final Services PMI: 48.4 v 47.9 prelim (confirms 3rd month of expansion); Composite PMI: 49.1 v 48.6 prelim.

- (DE) Germany Jan Final Services PMI: 52.4 v 53.3 prelim (confirmed 5th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.1 v 52.5 prelim.

- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Final Services PMI: 51.6 v 51.9 prelim (confirmed 8th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 51.3 v 51.5 prelim.

- (UK) Jan Final Services PMI: 54.0 v 54.3 prelim (confirmed 9th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 53.7 v 53.9 prelim.

- (UK) Jan Official Reserves Changes: $7.5B v $1.5B prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Advanced Preliminary CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.1%e.

- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e.

- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.0% v -1.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.8%e.

- (NO) Norway Dec House Price Index M/M: +3.6% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 5.0 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) opened its book to sell EUR-denominated new 30-year OLO bond via syndicate; guidance seen +6bps to Jun 2055 OLO.

- (IN) India sold total INR290B vs. INR290B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.75B in 2028 and 2035 DGB Bonds.

- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK20.0B vs. SEK20.0B indicated in 3-month and 9-month Bills.

Looking ahead

- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 4.00%.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €2.5% Nov 2032 Bunds.

- 06:00 (EU) European Union to sell combined €3.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q4 Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.8% prior.

- 06:30 (TR) Turkey Jan Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): No est v 71.11 prior.

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCh) Jan Minutes.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 30th: No est v -8.5% prior.

- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM Question time in House.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Services PMI: No est v 53.7 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 52.1 prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (US) Jan Monthly ADP Employment Change: +45Ke v +41K prior.

- 08:30 (UR) Ukraine Q4 GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.1% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Jan Services PMI: No est v 46.5 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 46.7 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Jan Final S&P Services PMI: 52.5e v 52.5 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 52.8 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Services Index: 53.5e v 53.8 prior (revised from 54.4).

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:00 (RU) Russia Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -0.7% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5 year Bonds.

- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Jan Minutes.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Trade Balance (A$): 3.5Be v 2.9B prior; Exports M/M: No est v -2.9% prior; Imports M/M: No est v 0.2% prior.

- 20:00 (PH) Philippines Jan CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Jan PMI Services: No est v 54.8 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 53.6 prior.

- 21:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell combined CNY13.5B in 2-year and 10-year bonds.

- 22:30 (TH) Thailand Jan CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.3% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.6% prior.

- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 30-year JGB Bonds.

- 23:00 (ID) Indonesia Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0,7%e v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.1%e v 5.0% prior; Annual 2025 GDP Y/Y: 5.0%e v 5.0% prior.

- 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to sell NT$35B in 10-year Bonds.