Tracking the forex market together / Part I

West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.65 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The WTI jumps to its highest since June 2025 after joint military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran over the weekend. Traders brace for the release of the American Petroleum Institute report, which will be released later on Tuesday. 

Gold is on fire at the start of the week, a widely expected move, as investors seek harbor in the traditional store of value, following the continued US and Israel attacks on Iran. The bright metal opened with a bullish gap of about $17 and rallied toward the $5,400 level as Asian traders hit their desks and reacted negatively to the weekend news of the Middle East conflict, rushing for cover in Gold.

AUD/USD recovers after opening at a gap down, trading around 0.7070 during the Asian hours on Monday. The risk-sensitive pair plunged as risk aversion heightened after the United States and Israel carried out coordinated strikes on Iran over the weekend.

Markets are likely to open the week with risk-off, with declines led by airlines, cyclicals and trade-exposed names, while energy, defense and “strategic” sectors may be relatively steadier.

A primer on how markets will open on Monday, and why geopolitical risk may not be easily absorbed by financial markets this time around. Geopolitics and events between Iran, the US and the wider Middle East will dominate financial markets on Monday. The situation has continued to escalate as we move through Sunday. 

We expect the February employment report to show that January’s robust pace of job growth overstated underlying momentum in the labor market. We look for nonfarm payrolls to rise 45K in February, moderating from its current three-month average pace of 73K (Figure 1).