Summary
The British electorate on Thursday faces the likely and unusual result of a hung Parliament, that is, without a clear majority for either main party, Conservatives or Labor. Coalition governments are common on the continent but rare in England. Except for the current arrangement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, the only two prior coalition governments in the last 150 years were during the two world wars of the 20th century. Coalitions, at least in formation, tend to give fringe political views greater weight in government. In Britain the likely coalition parties are the Scottish Nationalists, the anti-European UK Independence Party, UKIP, and the current government partner the Liberal Democrats. The Scottish Nationalists are mainstream social democrats and aside from their focus on Scottish nationalism are unlikely to challenge the governing consensus on British membership in the European Union or to advocate joining the euro. The UKIP is a different story. They garnered the fourth most votes in the 2010 elections and won the highest share of any party in the 2014 European Parliament elections. They advocate leaving the European Union and much greater independence from continental concerns. A strong showing, let alone consideration or inclusion in government would send shockwaves throughout the European political and financial establishments. Economic crisis have a way of dispensing with old political arrangement and fomenting new. We may be at the beginning of Europe’s emergence from the sureties of the post war world. Join us on Thursday for a sense of history as it happens. Read here our special interview with Joseph Trevisani about UK Elections.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD consolidates around 0.7100 as geopolitical risks counter hawkish RBA
AUD/USD remains confined within a multi-week-old range, oscillating around 0.7100 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Bets for another interest rate hike by the RBA in May continue to act as a tailwind for the Aussie. However, a hit to sentiment from US-Israeli air strikes against Iran helps the safe-haven US Dollar preserve its overnight strong gains, capping the upside in the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.
Gold stays bullish as Iran war continues to spur safe-haven flows
Gold is finding renewed bids in Asian trades on Tuesday, making another attempt to regain the $5,400 level amid persistent demand for safe-haven assets as the Iran war extends. A softer risk tone remains in play as US President Donald Trump continues to threaten deeper escalation to the ongoing war with Iran, warning that a “big wave” is yet to come.
USD/JPY struggles below 157.50 amid intervention fears, risk aversion
USD/JPY stays defensive below the 157.50 and over a five-week high set on Monday as a dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continues to benefit the US Dollar's status as the global reserve currency. The Japanese Yen also benefits from a risk-off market scenario amid looming FX intervention fears, acting as a drag on the major.
Top Crypto Gainers: Near Protocol, Virtuals Protocol, and Morpho lead market recovery
Near Protocol, Virtuals Protocol, and Morpho are leading the market recovery with double-digit gains over the last 24 hours. Technically, NEAR extends the breakout of the falling channel pattern, VIRTUAL holds above the 50-day EMA, while MORPHO tests a crucial resistance.
The market is not panicking it is repricing the probability distribution of Oil and time
At the end of the day, markets do not trade morality or geopolitics. They trade transmission channels. And the only channel that truly matters in this maelstrom runs through the price of energy and the time value of money.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 3:
The United States, allied with Israel, struck Iran over the weekend, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In retaliation, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases across several nations, with attacks from both parties still ongoing, fueling a geopolitical crisis.