US: GDP, trade balance and jobless claims in the focus - Nomura


Research Team at Nomura, lists down the key economic releases and their expectations from today’s US session.

Key Quotes

Advanced goods trade balance: The goods trade balance narrowed sharply in July, as goods exports grew by 2.9% m-o-m while goods imports fell by 1.0% m-o-m. Container data for August suggest that both goods exports and imports increased but growth of real exports likely outpaced imports. However, export prices likely declined more than import prices over the month. Thus, on a nominal basis, we forecast that goods trade balance widened modestly, to -$59.2bn in August from -$58.8bn in July.

Q2 GDP, second estimate: We think that the BEA is likely to revise up modestly its estimate of Q2 GDP. Incoming data since the last estimate have been generally more favorable for growth. The quarterly service survey for Q2 suggests that personal services spending was likely stronger than what the BEA had assumed previously. On the flip side, the survey results suggest that software investment likely was weaker than previously expected. Construction spending appears to be more favorable for nonresidential investment but imply more drag on growth from residential investment in Q2. Last, revisions to inventory and trade data for June were less favorable for growth. On balance, we expect BEA to revise up Q2 GDP to 1.2% from 1.1%, previously.

Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims trended lower over the latest reported week. With job gains still above “sustainable” levels and involuntary layoffs at historically low levels, labor market conditions appear to be healthy.

Pending home sales: Pending home sales, which tend to lead existing home sales, increased 1.3% in July following two consecutive months of declines. The declines in May and June translated into declines existing home sales in July and August. Given the pickup in pending home sales in July, existing home sales could rebound in September. However, this could prove temporary, as consensus expects pending home sales declined slightly by 0.1% in August.”

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

USD/JPY pops and drops on BoJ's expected hold

USD/JPY pops and drops on BoJ's expected hold

USD/JPY reverses a knee-jerk spike to 142.80 and returns to the red below 142.50 after the Bank of Japan announced on Friday that it maintained the short-term rate target in the range of 0.15%-0.25%, as widely expected. Governor Ueda's press conference is next in focus.  

USD/JPY News
AUD/USD bears attack 0.6800 amid PBOC's status-quo, cautious mood

AUD/USD bears attack 0.6800 amid PBOC's status-quo, cautious mood

AUD/USD attacks 0.6800 in Friday's Asian trading, extending its gradual retreat after the PBOC unexpectedly left mortgage lending rates unchanged in September. A cautious market mood also adds to the weight on the Aussie. Fedspeak eyed. 

AUD/USD News
Gold consolidates near record high, bullish potential seems intact

Gold consolidates near record high, bullish potential seems intact

Gold price regained positive traction on Thursday and rallied back closer to the all-time peak touched the previous day in reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to start the policy easing cycle with an oversized rate cut.

Gold News
Ethereum rallies over 6% following decision to split Pectra upgrade into two phases

Ethereum rallies over 6% following decision to split Pectra upgrade into two phases

In its Consensus Layer Call on Thursday, Ethereum developers decided to split the upcoming Pectra upgrade into two batches. The decision follows concerns about potential risks in shipping the previously approved series of Ethereum improvement proposals.

Read more
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets

Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session. 

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures