US: GDP, trade balance and jobless claims in the focus

Research Team at Nomura, lists down the key economic releases and their expectations from today’s US session.

Key Quotes

“Advanced goods trade balance: The goods trade balance narrowed sharply in July, as goods exports grew by 2.9% m-o-m while goods imports fell by 1.0% m-o-m. Container data for August suggest that both goods exports and imports increased but growth of real exports likely outpaced imports. However, export prices likely declined more than import prices over the month. Thus, on a nominal basis, we forecast that goods trade balance widened modestly, to -$59.2bn in August from -$58.8bn in July.

Q2 GDP, second estimate: We think that the BEA is likely to revise up modestly its estimate of Q2 GDP. Incoming data since the last estimate have been generally more favorable for growth. The quarterly service survey for Q2 suggests that personal services spending was likely stronger than what the BEA had assumed previously. On the flip side, the survey results suggest that software investment likely was weaker than previously expected. Construction spending appears to be more favorable for nonresidential investment but imply more drag on growth from residential investment in Q2. Last, revisions to inventory and trade data for June were less favorable for growth. On balance, we expect BEA to revise up Q2 GDP to 1.2% from 1.1%, previously.

Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims trended lower over the latest reported week. With job gains still above “sustainable” levels and involuntary layoffs at historically low levels, labor market conditions appear to be healthy.

Pending home sales: Pending home sales, which tend to lead existing home sales, increased 1.3% in July following two consecutive months of declines. The declines in May and June translated into declines existing home sales in July and August. Given the pickup in pending home sales in July, existing home sales could rebound in September. However, this could prove temporary, as consensus expects pending home sales declined slightly by 0.1% in August.”

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