Having faced rejection at 50-day SMA resistance near 0.7560 region, the AUD/USD pair turned lower and retraced to 0.7536 amid pre-NFP range-bound trading action.
Currently trading with negative bias around 0.7540-45 band, the pair remained confined within a narrow trading band as traders seemed reluctant to carry big bets ahead of the key event risk, US monthly jobs report, which is known to infuse substantial volatility in global financial markets and could have a much bigger impact on the FX market.
Today’s NFP release would be an important factor in gauging the next Fed monetary policy action and would also help investors to determine the near-term trajectory for the greenback. Consensus estimates point to headline NFP print to show addition of 180k new jobs in August, while unemployment rate is to tick lower to 4.8%.
Technical outlook
Omkar Godbole, Editor and Analyst at FXStreet, notes, "Despite pair’s rebound from 100-DMA support on Wednesday and a move higher on Thursday, a subsequent failure to cut through the rising trend line (coming from June 24 low and July 27 low) in the NY session and in the early Asian session today suggests a break below 5-DMA would open doors for a re-test of 100-DMA support seen today at 0.7492."
"A violation there is likely if the NFP and wage growth figures beat estimates. The 200-DMA support of 0.7383 stands exposed in this case."
"On the higher side, a break above 0.76 would open doors for a re-test of last Friday’s high of 0.7692."
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