Gold Forecast and News
Gold remains supported by China's buying and USD weakness as traders eye US data
Gold struggles to capitalize on its intraday move up and remains below the $5,100 mark heading into the European session amid mixed cues. Data released over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January. Moreover, dovish US Fed expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence drag the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The precious metal is flirting with the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance, and a sustained strength above will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains above the Signal line and above zero, while the positive histogram is contracting, suggesting fading upside momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 64 (bullish) without reaching overbought. The 200-hour SMA slopes lower, keeping the intraday tone offered and acting as immediate resistance. A sustained close back above the 200-period SMA would improve the near-term outlook, whereas rejection there would keep sellers in control.
Fundamental Overview
Signs of easing tensions in the Middle East boost investors' sentiment, which is evident from a positive tone around the equity markets. This, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the safe-haven Gold. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for this week's important US macro releases – the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Wednesday and the latest consumer inflation figures on Friday. The crucial data will offer cues about the Fed's rate-cut path and drive the XAU/USD pair.
Gold bulls seem non-committal as positive risk tone counters supporting factors
Data from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) showed on Saturday that the central bank continued its gold purchases for the 15th straight month in January, highlighting steady demand amid fiscal concerns in major economies. China's gold holdings surged 40,000 troy ounces to 74.19 million last month, and the value of reserves increased to $369.58 billion.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a greater possibility that the US Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs at least more times in 2026. The bets were reaffirmed by last week's US data, which pointed to signs of weakness in the labor market and backed the case for further policy easing by the US central bank.
US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he might sue his newly selected Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, if he didn’t lower rates. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday refused to rule out the possibility of a criminal investigation of Kevin Warsh if he ends up refusing to cut interest rates, fueling concerns about the central bank's independence.
Apart from this, the broader dedollarization trend drags the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, away from a two-week top touched last Thursday. This, in turn, drives some follow-through flows towards the non-yielding Gold at the start of a new week. However, the upbeat mood across the global equity markets acts as a headwind for the commodity.
Despite differences over the agenda, indirect talks between the US and Iran on the future of the latter's nuclear program ended on Friday with a broad agreement to maintain a diplomatic path. This helps ease concerns about a military confrontation in the Middle East and boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets, capping the upside for the safe-haven precious metal.
The XAU/USD bulls also seem reluctant ahead of the delayed release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Wednesday. Apart from this, the US consumer inflation figures on Friday will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and providing a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD pair.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space Premium
After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold (XAU/USD) remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD holds firm near 1.1850 amid USD weakness
EUR/USD remains strongly bid around 1.1850 in European trading on Monday. The USD/JPY slide-led broad US Dollar weakness helps the pair build on Friday's recovery ahead of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February.
GBP/USD holds medium-term bullish bias above 1.3600
The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3605 during the early European session on Monday. Growing expectation of the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut weighs on the Pound Sterling against the Greenback.
USD/JPY keeps the red below 157.00 on intervention risks
The Japanese Yen sticks to its modest intraday recovery gains against a broadly weaker US Dollar on the back of speculations that authorities will step in to stem weakness in the domestic currency. In fact, Japanese officials stepped up intervention warnings and confirmed close coordination with the US against disorderly FX moves. This, in turn, triggered an intraday USD/JPY turnaround from the 157.65 region, or a two-week top, touched in reaction to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide win in Sunday's election.
Gold remains supported by China's buying and USD weakness as traders eye US data
Gold struggles to capitalize on its intraday move up and remains below the $5,100 mark heading into the European session amid mixed cues. Data released over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January. Moreover, dovish US Fed expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence drag the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.
WTI holds losses near $62.50 as concerns over US–Iran conflict ease
West Texas Intermediate Oil price remains subdued after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around $62.70 per barrel during the early European hours. Crude Oil prices remain under pressure as concerns over a potential United States–Iran conflict ease following renewed diplomatic engagement.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.