Summary
There are two ways to look at the Aussie's 13.8% top to bottom (1.0582-0.9113) fall against the US Dollar since mid-April. First is the immediate context. It is rare for a major currency to have a fall of this magnitude without a substantial subsequent retracement. The small return since the June 28 low has not reached even the shallowest of the Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.9457 (23.6%). The second lens is historical. Even at its currency level against the dollar of 0.9234 (7/1), and including its run from 0.6009 in the fall of 2008 to the July 2011 all-time record of 1.1081, the Aussie is still 22% below its 20 year average of 0.7588. Has the expansion of the Chinese, Indian and other emerging market economies and their need for resources brought the providers and their currencies to a higher natural plane of valuation? Of to put it another way, has the Australian economy entered a new and long-term state of economic expansion in tandem with emerging markets?Latest Live Videos
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WTI retraces sharply to $70, eyes on Strait of Hormuz oil flows
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is retracing its spike to above $73 in the Asian session on Friday. WTI jumped to its highest since June 2025 after joint military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran over the weekend. Traders now assess the oil supply flow through the Strait of Hormuz for further cues.
Gold looks further north as Iran war boosts haven demand
Gold is taking a breather after the initial run to over one-month highs near $5,400, kicking off the new week with a bang. A global flight to safety theme, following the US-Israel joint attacks on Iran over the weekend, bolstered the demand for the traditional store of value, Gold.
AUD/USD fills weekly bearish gap against retreating USD; retakes 0.7100
The AUD/USD pair rebounds following the weekly bearish gap opening to the 0.7030 area, or the lower end of a three-week-old range, and climbs back above the 0.7100 mark during the Asian session.
Top Crypto Losers: Tezos, Toncoin, and Polkadot at crucial levels amid US-Israel strike on Iran
Altcoins such as Tezos, Toncoin, and Polkadot rank among the worst hit cryptocurrencies over the last 24 hours amid the US and Israel's attack on Iran. Tezos and Toncoin are down to crucial support levels while Polkadot remains near a crucial resistance trendline, showcasing underlying strength.
The market is paying for insurance, not apocalypse
As expected, this morning felt less like a Monday market open and more like a fire drill. Futures screens flickered red. S&P contracts down almost 1%. Nasdaq off 1.2%. Brent leaped 13% through $80. Gold rose 1.6% toward $5350 before paring some gains. The dollar is strutting mildly. The Swiss franc is quietly doing what it always does in a storm, catching some safe-haven flows.
February employment preview: Back to payroll reality
We expect the February employment report to show that January’s robust pace of job growth overstated underlying momentum in the labor market. We look for nonfarm payrolls to rise 45K in February, moderating from its current three-month average pace of 73K (Figure 1).