Brandon Wendell, CMT
Brandon Wendell
Traders and investors in the Indian equity markets have been enjoying watching as prices have been breaking to all-time highs. Of course the big question in everyone’s mind is where will this bull run end and is there anything I can do to protect my capital when it does? While no one can predict exactly where this price movement will reverse since there is no supply level above to signal this, there are some tools that traders can use to identify when the bullish pressure has subsided and therefore marked the time for profit taking in your portfolio.
One of the most common methods is to use a moving average on your chart. The average summarizes the past trend and momentum and when prices start breaking down below it, you have likely seen the end of your trend. There are two problems with using moving averages. First, they are lagging and give very late signals. Secondly, since they are lagging, you are likely to have given back some profits you have made in the previous trend before you exit.
To reduce the lag and hopefully exit with more profits, many traders will look to advanced technical analysis tools such as the Fibonacci Extension tool. This uses the Fibonacci numerical sequence to project probable price points in the future where price may turn. The problem is that the price may only use these areas as pausing points rather than reversal areas and you could be exiting prematurely.
Price is usually the best indicator. Using the definition of a trend can help you identify when the trend is reversing and action is needed on longer term trades and positions.
Again you can see that using this method will not necessarily get you out with the greatest profit but it will protect your money against a large drawdown. Perhaps a combination of the above methods would be a better plan for your trading and investing. To learn more on how to identify market turning points and timing these turns, join us at one of our courses at Online Trading Academy today.
Neither Freedom Management Partners nor any of its personnel are registered broker-dealers or investment advisers. I will mention that I consider certain securities or positions to be good candidates for the types of strategies we are discussing or illustrating. Because I consider the securities or positions appropriate to the discussion or for illustration purposes does not mean that I am telling you to trade the strategies or securities. Keep in mind that we are not providing you with recommendations or personalized advice about your trading activities. The information we are providing is not tailored to any individual. Any mention of a particular security is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security or a suggestion that it is suitable for any specific person. Keep in mind that all trading involves a risk of loss, and this will always be the situation, regardless of whether we are discussing strategies that are intended to limit risk. Also, Freedom Management Partners’ personnel are not subject to trading restrictions. I and others at Freedom Management Partners could have a position in a security or initiate a position in a security at any time.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve
EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued.
GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets
GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season.
USD/JPY corrects further to near 155.80, gives up entire BoJ policy-led gains
USD/JPY surrenders its entire gains made on the BoJ policy announcement day, and retraces to near 155.80. Investors are in vogue over the outlook of the BoJ’s monetary tightening campaign. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by at least 50 bps next year.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD Price Annual Forecast: Growth to displace central banks from the limelight in 2026 Premium
What a year! Donald Trump’s return to the United States (US) Presidency was no doubt what led financial markets throughout 2025. His not-always-unexpected or surprising decisions shaped investors’ sentiment, or better said, unprecedented uncertainty.
Gold Price Annual Forecast: 2026 could see new record-highs but a 2025-like rally is unlikely Premium
Gold hit multiple new record highs throughout 2025. Trade-war fears, geopolitical instability and monetary easing in major economies were the main drivers behind Gold’s rally.
GBP/USD Price Annual Forecast: Will 2026 be another bullish year for Pound Sterling? Premium
Having wrapped up 2025 on a positive note, the Pound Sterling (GBP) eyes another meaningful and upbeat year against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of 2026.
US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: 2026 set to be a year of transition, not capitulation Premium
The US Dollar (USD) enters the new year at a crossroads. After several years of sustained strength driven by US growth outperformance, aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, and recurrent episodes of global risk aversion, the conditions that underpinned broad-based USD appreciation are beginning to erode, but not collapse.
Bitcoin Price Annual Forecast: BTC holds long-term bullish structure heading into 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) is wrapping up 2025 as one of its most eventful years, defined by unprecedented institutional participation, major regulatory developments, and extreme price volatility.
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