Brandon Wendell, CMT
Brandon Wendell
As traders we all want to find the highest probable turning points in the markets. At Online Trading Academy, our students learn how to find them through the discovery of high quality supply and demand zones. In addition to the zones, there are several Odds Enhancers that we teach that traders can use to increase their probability of success in the markets.
One odds enhancer is similar to a fuel gauge, the Average True Range, (ATR). A fuel gauge in a car tells you how much gas you still have left. If you know your average miles per gallon for the car, you can figure out how far you can still travel without running out of gas. The ATR can tell you how much price movement you may experience before you run out of momentum.
The range of a stock’s price is the difference between the high price and the low price during a period of time. The true range is a little different in that it also includes any gapping that may have occurred from the prior period. So, the Average True Range measures the stock’s price vibration (average movement between high and low) over a period of time. The default is usually 14 periods.
The ATR of a stock will differ based on the period you have your chart set for. If you are viewing a daily chart, the ATR will refer to the average movement that stock will make between the high and the low for the day. If you have your charts set for 15 minutes, then you will see the average movement for every 15 minute period.
When price is trending strongly in a particular direction, knowing the ATR for that timeframe can offer you a clue as to when price may pause or reverse. For instance, in the following picture, the daily ATR for SPY was $3.81. If you subtracted that from the prior day’s close of $185.28, you knew that the morning gap and price drop would likely see a pause when it reached the daily ATR range.
Additionally, when price reaches a supply or demand zone beyond the ATR, it is more likely to reverse. Price may still have plenty of momentum when it reaches a supply or demand within the ATR.
We can even use this ATR on a larger timeframe. Last month’s ATR for the Q’s was $9.52. At the close of January, QQQ finished at $104.13 and started to sell off in February. Subtracting the ATR to the closing price of the previous month, we arrived at a target of $94.61 for the monthly trend of the Q’s. After opening positive on the first day of the month, prices dropped until they were just shy of the ATR target. As of the writing of this article, price has lost its downward momentum and has been basing at that ATR target.
So, while it is not a perfect timing tool for the markets, the ATR can be used to enhance our trading. It is an odds enhancer for traders. To learn about the other odds enhancers, join us in one of our classes at Online Trading Academy today!
Neither Freedom Management Partners nor any of its personnel are registered broker-dealers or investment advisers. I will mention that I consider certain securities or positions to be good candidates for the types of strategies we are discussing or illustrating. Because I consider the securities or positions appropriate to the discussion or for illustration purposes does not mean that I am telling you to trade the strategies or securities. Keep in mind that we are not providing you with recommendations or personalized advice about your trading activities. The information we are providing is not tailored to any individual. Any mention of a particular security is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security or a suggestion that it is suitable for any specific person. Keep in mind that all trading involves a risk of loss, and this will always be the situation, regardless of whether we are discussing strategies that are intended to limit risk. Also, Freedom Management Partners’ personnel are not subject to trading restrictions. I and others at Freedom Management Partners could have a position in a security or initiate a position in a security at any time.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve
EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued.
GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets
GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season.
USD/JPY corrects further to near 155.80, gives up entire BoJ policy-led gains
USD/JPY surrenders its entire gains made on the BoJ policy announcement day, and retraces to near 155.80. Investors are in vogue over the outlook of the BoJ’s monetary tightening campaign. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by at least 50 bps next year.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD Price Annual Forecast: Growth to displace central banks from the limelight in 2026 Premium
What a year! Donald Trump’s return to the United States (US) Presidency was no doubt what led financial markets throughout 2025. His not-always-unexpected or surprising decisions shaped investors’ sentiment, or better said, unprecedented uncertainty.
Gold Price Annual Forecast: 2026 could see new record-highs but a 2025-like rally is unlikely Premium
Gold hit multiple new record highs throughout 2025. Trade-war fears, geopolitical instability and monetary easing in major economies were the main drivers behind Gold’s rally.
GBP/USD Price Annual Forecast: Will 2026 be another bullish year for Pound Sterling? Premium
Having wrapped up 2025 on a positive note, the Pound Sterling (GBP) eyes another meaningful and upbeat year against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of 2026.
US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: 2026 set to be a year of transition, not capitulation Premium
The US Dollar (USD) enters the new year at a crossroads. After several years of sustained strength driven by US growth outperformance, aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, and recurrent episodes of global risk aversion, the conditions that underpinned broad-based USD appreciation are beginning to erode, but not collapse.
Bitcoin Price Annual Forecast: BTC holds long-term bullish structure heading into 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) is wrapping up 2025 as one of its most eventful years, defined by unprecedented institutional participation, major regulatory developments, and extreme price volatility.
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