Many people think fundamental analysis doesn’t work, and the main reason for this is because they simply don’t understand it correctly.
Over the last 2 weeks we’ve had a couple of news announcements that have confused people into thinking that news trading is pretty random, and almost impossible to make consistent profits from.
I will look at this event in more detail and explain why things moved the way they did.
The particular event was Australian private capital expenditure, and this figure came out at -4.2% which was much worse than the expected 1.6%. Many retail traders who look at that particular figure would think that the AUD would fall off much worse than expected data. However surprisingly, the AUDUSD rallied almost 100 pips, which continued into the following day where it broke 0.9300.
Many people would see this and instantly think that news trading doesn’t work, and it’s completely random.
Basically, this is not the case, and anyone who thinks that simply doesn’t understand how news trading works. Which is the reason I’m trying to explain it, and give you a better understanding of why things move the way they do.
You’ve got to look behind the headline figure, and in this case with the Australian private capital expenditure, overall companies were investing less which is of course negative, however there was two things you need to bear in mind from this figure.
Firstly, the projections for the coming year were much revised up, which provides a very positive outlook.
Secondly, it was shown that companies and businesses away from the mining sector (which is one of Australia’s biggest industries) were expanding at a faster pace, and the reason that’s important is because the RBA is focused on getting Australia away from relying heavily on mining and exporting commodities, particularly to China.
So in summary, they are trying to move away from depending on mining so heavily, and from that figure, it showed that the transition from mining to non-mining is going very smoothly, which overall is bullish for the AUD.
At no time should anyone view the information presented anywhere on this website as advice, recommendation or proven. Everything reflected is merely opinion and may not be accurate. The purpose of the site is to express the opinions and views of Jarratt Davis. There is no intention to offer specific help, advice or suggestions to anyone reading any of the content posted here.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains depressed below mid-1.1800s; downside potential seems limited
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers for the second consecutive day on Tuesday and hovers below mid-1.1800s amid a relatively quiet trading action during the Asian session. The broader fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution for bearish traders before positioning for deeper losses.
GBP/USD trades with negative bias, eyes 1.3600 ahead of UK jobs data
The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bearish conviction and holds above the 1.3600 mark through the Asian session on Tuesday. Traders now look forward to the release of the UK monthly jobs report, which will influence the British Pound and provide some impetus to the currency pair.
USD/JPY falls back toward 153.00 as Japanese Yen finds its feet
USD/JPY has turned south to test the 153.00 level after having faced resistance near the 153.75 zone in Asian trading on Tuesday. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations offer some support to the Japanese Yen. That said, Japan's weak Q4 GDP print, released on Monday, tempered bets for an immediate BoJ rate hike. This, along with the underlying bullish sentiment, could limit the pair's downside.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD eases toward 0.7050 after RBA minutes
AUD/USD inches lower toward 0.7050 in Tuesday's Asian trading, reacting little to the RBA February Minutes, which reinforced a tightening bias. The hawkish outlook, however, fails to provide any impetus to the Australian Dollar as the timing of the next rate hike is unclear. In contrast, bets for more rate cuts by the Fed keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and act as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the underlying bullish sentiment.
USD/JPY falls back toward 153.00 as Japanese Yen finds its feet
USD/JPY has turned south to test the 153.00 level after having faced resistance near the 153.75 zone in Asian trading on Tuesday. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations offer some support to the Japanese Yen. That said, Japan's weak Q4 GDP print, released on Monday, tempered bets for an immediate BoJ rate hike. This, along with the underlying bullish sentiment, could limit the pair's downside.
Gold declines as trading volumes remain subdued due to holidays in China
Gold price extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $4,930 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Gold price is trading nearly 0.7% lower at the time of writing as trading volumes stayed thin due to market holidays across China, Hong Kong, and other parts of Asia.
Top Crypto Gainers: Stable, MemeCore and Nexo rally test critical resistance levels
Stable, MemeCore, and Nexo are among the leading gainers in the crypto market over the last 24 hours, while Bitcoin remains below $70,000, suggesting renewed interest in altcoins among investors.
The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone
It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.
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