All this crazy volatility that we've been seeing lately reminds me of an excellent interview done on one of our stars from the forums, TalonD. Amongst the abundance of wisdom shared in that interview, there was one piece of treasure that continues to hold true with every trader, whether they realize it or not:
"The only thing you can know for certain is that you can't know anything for certain." TalonD, I couldn't have said it any better than you, my friend.
It can be said that currency trading truly is the most challenging market. The currency market is like any wild beast that's awake 24 hours a day; it can be a wee bit irrational and cranky. And with the slightest agitation, that beast can unpredictably go from docile to volatile and back again in an instant. Given that we are in uncharted waters in terms of a shifting environment and unprecedented events, it looks like this increasing uncertainty will only make the beast that much fiercer.
As we continue into a world of competing monetary policies, unsteady global economic recovery, and constantly shifting investor sentiment, what can we do to prevent uncertainty from crippling us with fear?
In my experience, battling uncertainty and getting past my fears requires two simple things:
The first step is acceptance. Ray Dalio, founder of the world's current #1 ranked and largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, once wrote in reference to market speculation that, "No matter how hard you work, you can still be wrong." With his 35+ years of experience in the markets--and working with some the best people and tools money can get ya--he attests to the fact that there is no perfect pill or holy grail to trading and investing.
If you have it in your mind that your analysis will be so good or that you'll find that perfect mathematical formula to building a flawless trading record, guess again! The reality is that unless you can see into the future, you won't be able to predict every market move or your mech system won't be able to factor in every variable possible.
Yes, you WILL have losing trades. If you can't internalize the principle that no matter what you do you'll never know everything that's around the corner, then you will be unable to adapt to the ever changing conditions.
Now, everyone is different, so the catalyst for a paradigm shift to acceptance may come at different moments for each of us. But you can bet that it usually doesn't come until after a lot of trades and experience...
The second step of reducing the risk of the unknown is to be prepared. Serious business requires serious planning. For example, would a doctor just say, "Well, I think you have a bad heart. I'll just cut open and poke around a bit to see what I can find. Just lay back, relax and don't worry. I've done this a million times..."
The reality is that even a doctor with many years of experience would conduct many tests, and if necessary, prepare a team of highly skilled professionals to perform open heart surgery and be ready for any unforeseen complications. Like surgery, trading is serious business. And while unpredictable factors will always be present, uncertainty can be significantly reduced through proper preparation.
Taking the time to study and control what you can (e.g., being aware of sentiment and upcoming news, considering all possible market reactions, controlling your max loss with stops) reduces much of the uncertainty, because you have identified and planned for the "worst case" scenario. And if you already know the outcome of your trade regardless if the market goes up, down or sideways, then how can you be afraid?
Acceptance and preparation sound like no-brainer solutions to overcoming the emotions created by facing the unknown, but of course, it's easier said than done. The former may go against a belief system already deeply internalized in all of us: there is a logical reason for everything. Therefore we think, "If I work hard and find the reasons that moved the market, I can use it as an edge." As I'm sure you've already experienced, the markets can be illogical and stay illogical longer than you can stay solvent.
The second solution, preparation, just flat out requires work. Like a chef waking up at 4 am to prep for a long day in the restaurant, you just have to put in the chart time, economic reading, and/or system research and testing to be prepared for whatever the market will throw at you--day in and day out.
But don't worry, if you survive in this game long enough, uncertainty will be overcome through sheer experience. Just keep your head up when you take a hit, focus on developing good trading habits (not profits), and soon enough you'll be saying, "Uncertainty? What uncertainty?
"The only thing you can know for certain is that you can't know anything for certain." TalonD, I couldn't have said it any better than you, my friend.
It can be said that currency trading truly is the most challenging market. The currency market is like any wild beast that's awake 24 hours a day; it can be a wee bit irrational and cranky. And with the slightest agitation, that beast can unpredictably go from docile to volatile and back again in an instant. Given that we are in uncharted waters in terms of a shifting environment and unprecedented events, it looks like this increasing uncertainty will only make the beast that much fiercer.
As we continue into a world of competing monetary policies, unsteady global economic recovery, and constantly shifting investor sentiment, what can we do to prevent uncertainty from crippling us with fear?
In my experience, battling uncertainty and getting past my fears requires two simple things:
- Acceptance
- Preparation
Acceptance
The first step is acceptance. Ray Dalio, founder of the world's current #1 ranked and largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, once wrote in reference to market speculation that, "No matter how hard you work, you can still be wrong." With his 35+ years of experience in the markets--and working with some the best people and tools money can get ya--he attests to the fact that there is no perfect pill or holy grail to trading and investing.
If you have it in your mind that your analysis will be so good or that you'll find that perfect mathematical formula to building a flawless trading record, guess again! The reality is that unless you can see into the future, you won't be able to predict every market move or your mech system won't be able to factor in every variable possible.
Yes, you WILL have losing trades. If you can't internalize the principle that no matter what you do you'll never know everything that's around the corner, then you will be unable to adapt to the ever changing conditions.
Now, everyone is different, so the catalyst for a paradigm shift to acceptance may come at different moments for each of us. But you can bet that it usually doesn't come until after a lot of trades and experience...
Be Prepared
The second step of reducing the risk of the unknown is to be prepared. Serious business requires serious planning. For example, would a doctor just say, "Well, I think you have a bad heart. I'll just cut open and poke around a bit to see what I can find. Just lay back, relax and don't worry. I've done this a million times..."
The reality is that even a doctor with many years of experience would conduct many tests, and if necessary, prepare a team of highly skilled professionals to perform open heart surgery and be ready for any unforeseen complications. Like surgery, trading is serious business. And while unpredictable factors will always be present, uncertainty can be significantly reduced through proper preparation.
Taking the time to study and control what you can (e.g., being aware of sentiment and upcoming news, considering all possible market reactions, controlling your max loss with stops) reduces much of the uncertainty, because you have identified and planned for the "worst case" scenario. And if you already know the outcome of your trade regardless if the market goes up, down or sideways, then how can you be afraid?
Is it really that simple?
Acceptance and preparation sound like no-brainer solutions to overcoming the emotions created by facing the unknown, but of course, it's easier said than done. The former may go against a belief system already deeply internalized in all of us: there is a logical reason for everything. Therefore we think, "If I work hard and find the reasons that moved the market, I can use it as an edge." As I'm sure you've already experienced, the markets can be illogical and stay illogical longer than you can stay solvent.
The second solution, preparation, just flat out requires work. Like a chef waking up at 4 am to prep for a long day in the restaurant, you just have to put in the chart time, economic reading, and/or system research and testing to be prepared for whatever the market will throw at you--day in and day out.
But don't worry, if you survive in this game long enough, uncertainty will be overcome through sheer experience. Just keep your head up when you take a hit, focus on developing good trading habits (not profits), and soon enough you'll be saying, "Uncertainty? What uncertainty?
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD keeps the rangebound trade near 1.1850
EUR/USD is still under pressure, drifting back towards the 1.1850 area as Monday’s session draws to a close. The modest decline in spot comes as the US Dollar picks up a bit of support, while thin liquidity and muted volatility, thanks to the US market holiday, are exaggerating price swings and keeping trading conditions choppy.
GBP/USD flirts with daily lows near 1.3630
GBP/USD has quickly given back Friday’s solid gains, turning lower at the start of the week and drifting back towards the 1.3630 area. The focus now shifts squarely to Tuesday’s UK labour market report, which is likely to keep the quid firmly in the spotlight and could set the tone for Cable’s next move.
USD/JPY advances on weak Japanese GDP, holiday-thinned trading
USD/JPY rises while US and Japanese markets remain closed for holidays. Weak Japanese Gross Domestic Product figures curb tightening expectations. Investors await speeches from Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD retargets 0.7100 ahead of RBA Minutes
AUD/USD keeps the slightly bid bias around 0.7070 ahead of the opening bell in Asia. Indeed, the pair reverses two daily pullbacks in a row, meeting some initial contention around 0.7050 while investors gear up for the release of the RBA Minutes early on Tuesday.
EUR/USD keeps the rangebound trade near 1.1850
EUR/USD is still under pressure, drifting back towards the 1.1850 area as Monday’s session draws to a close. The modest decline in spot comes as the US Dollar picks up a bit of support, while thin liquidity and muted volatility, thanks to the US market holiday, are exaggerating price swings and keeping trading conditions choppy.
Gold battle around $5,000 continues
Gold is giving back part of Friday’s sharp rebound, deflating below the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce as the new week gets underway. Modest gains in the US Dollar are keeping the metal in check, while thin trading conditions, due to the Presidents Day holiday in the US, are adding to the choppy and hesitant tone across markets.
AI Crypto Update: Bittensor eyes breakout as AI tokens falter
The artificial intelligence (AI) cryptocurrency segment is witnessing heightened volatility, with top tokens such as Near Protocol (NEAR) struggling to gain traction amid the persistent decline in January and February.
The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone
It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.
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