Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
December 2015 looks set to be a dream month for interest rate nerds given the prospect of the ECB cutting and the Fed hiking for the first time since mid-2006. The ECB gets to kick off the party on Thursday, when we expect it both to lower its deposit rate by 20bp and to extend and enlarge its QE programme.
Friday brings the November jobs report stateside, which will give us our last insight into the current state of the US labour market before the Fed decides whether to hike on 16 December. We expect somewhat lower employment growth in November than in October but 175,000 new jobs in a month would still point to higher interest rates.
In addition, just to keep things interesting in our dream month, the week also brings the ISM in the US, flash inflation in Europe and the PMI in China.
Global macro and market themes
December 2015 looks set to be a dream month for interest rate nerds given the prospect of the ECB cutting and the Fed hiking for the first time since mid-2006. The ECB gets to kick off the party on Thursday, when we expect it both to lower its deposit rate by 20bp and to extend and enlarge its QE programme.
Friday brings the November jobs report stateside, which will give us our last insight into the current state of the US labour market before the Fed decides whether to hike on 16 December. We expect somewhat lower employment growth in November than in October but 175,000 new jobs in a month would still point to higher interest rates.
In addition, just to keep things interesting in our dream month, the week also brings the ISM in the US, flash inflation in Europe and the PMI in China.
Global macro and market themes
- Euro area growth set to reaccelerate.
- ECB preparing to cut...
- ...while the Fed is ready for lift-off.
- Bond yields set to move higher.
- China bottoming but medium-term challenges remain.
- CNY under increased pressure - more in store.
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