Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
- In the US, focus next week is on the FOMC minutes from the October meeting due on Wednesday. Here we will get more details on why the Fed flagged a clear tightening bias.
- Q3 GDP figures in Norway will be the centre of attention in the Scandi market next week. Recent key figures have not painted a particularly clear picture of the Norwegian economy in Q3 so uncertainty is high with regard to the release.
- Otherwise focus is increasingly on the IMF decision about the inclusion of China in the SDR. No formal date has been announced but November has been mentioned as the month for the decision.
- In the UK, CPI inflation in October is due on Tuesday. Although we previously argued that the bottom for inflation was reached in September, we have been caught by surprise by a drop in gasoline prices.
Global macro and market themes
- Euro risk assets getting more support.
- Core euro bond yields caught between Fed hikes and ECB easing.
- EUR/USD heading lower short term.
- CNY to weaken but we still do not expect big devaluation.
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