USD/JPY - Weakening near the major resistance at 110.66

EUR/USD

Trying to bounce.

• EUR/USD has broken the strong support area between 1.2755 and 1.2662, confirming an underlying bearish trend. In the short-term, prices are trying to bounce. Hourly resistances are given by 1.2715 (29/09/2014 high) and the steep declining trendline (around 1.2782). An hourly support now lies at 1.2571 (30/09/2014 low).

• Today's ECB is likely to increase volatility.

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The break of the strong support area between 1.2755 (09/07/2013 low) and 1.2662 (13/11/2012 low) opens the way for a decline towards the strong support at 1.2043 (24/07/2012 low). Intermediate supports are given by 1.2500 (psychological support) and 1.2466 (28/08/2012 low).

Short 2 units at 1.2652, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.2507, remaining at 1.2155, Stop: 1.2710 (Entered: 2014-09-30).

GBP/USD

Pausing near the support at 1.6162.

• GBP/USD continues to retrace the rebound that started from the low at 1.6052. The hourly support at 1.6162 (16/09/2014 low) has held thus far. However, a break of the hourly resistance at 1.6287 is needed to invalidate the short-term bearish momentum.

• In the longer term, the collapse in prices after having reached 4-year highs has created a strong resistance at 1.7192, which is unlikely to be broken in the coming months. We favour a medium-term consolidation phase with supports at 1.6052 and 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low) and a resistance at 1.6644.

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Weakening near the major resistance at 110.66.

• USD/JPY has broken the support at 109.13, suggesting a short-term weakening buying interest. Given the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high), a short-term consolidation phase is likely. Key supports can be found at 108.26 and 106.81.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) holds. The recent new highs confirm a strong underlying bullish trend. A break of the major resistance at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high, see also the 50% retracement from the 1998's top) is eventually favoured. Another resistance can be found at 114.66 (27/12/2007 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Pickup in short-term selling pressure?

• USD/CHF made large daily upper shadows in the last two days, suggesting a pickup in shortterm selling pressures. However, no significant support has been broken thus far. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9489 and 0.9433 (18/09/2014 high). An hourly resistance lies at 0.9597.

• From a longer term perspective, the technical structure favours a full retracement of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The break of the strong resistance at 0.9456 (06/09/2013 high) confirms this scenario. Another key resistance lies at 0.9751 (09/07/2013 high). Supports can be found at 0.9301 (16/09/2014 low) and 0.9176 (03/09/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Fading near the key resistance at 1.1279.

• USD/CAD has weakened near the strong resistance at 1.1279. The hourly support at 1.1132 (29/09/2014 low) has been broken. Another support lies at 1.1053 (24/09/2014 low, see also the 50% retracement). An initial resistance now lies at 1.1132 (previous support).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. Strong supports are given by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0740) and 1.0621 (03/07/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Successful test thus far of the strong support at 0.8660.

• AUD/USD has thus far successfully tested the strong support at 0.8660. Hourly resistances can be found at 0.8826 (intraday high) and 0.8950 (22/09/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the underlying trend is negative. The impulsive decline from the lower high at 0.9505 (01/07/2014 high) does not suggest that the end of this downtrend is near. Monitor the test of the strong support at 0.8660 (24/01/2014 low). A key resistance stands at 0.9112 (16/09/2014 high). Another strong support lies at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Extending to the downside.

• GBP/JPY has broken to the downside out of the horizontal range defined by the hourly support at 176.65 (23/09/2014 low) and the resistance at 178.74 (23/09/2014 high). A further corrective phase towards the support area between 175.03 (50% retracement) and 174.67 (12/09/2014 high) is favoured. An hourly resistance lies at 177.14 (25/09/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength. However, the failure to hold above the resistance at 179.17 (see also psychological threshold at 180.00) favours a phase of consolidation. Other resistances can be found at 183.98 (50% retracement of the 2007-2009 decline) and 197.45. Strong supports lie at 172.99 (16/09/2014 low) and 169.51 (11/04/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Moving lower.

• EUR/JPY continues to erase the gains made from its September rise. The support at 137.67 (see also the 61.8% retracement) has been broken, increasing the odds of a full retracement. An initial resistance lies at 137.95 (30/09/2014 low), while a more significant resistance stands at 139.13 (29/09/2014 high). A key support can be found at 135.73.

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. The break of the strong resistance at 140.09 (09/06/2014 high) has invalidated the medium-term bearish trend. A resistance can be found at 142.47 (29/04/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Monitor the strong support at 0.7755.

• EUR/GBP is close to its strong support at 0.7755. Prices have displayed noticeable daily lower shadows for the last two days. However, the short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 0.7889 (23/09/2014 high). An initial resistance lies at 0.7830 (25/09/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the underlying downtrend favours a test of the major support area between 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low) and 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low) at minimum. A decisive break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Moving sideways.

• EUR/CHF is moving sideways between the support at 1.2045 and the resistance at 1.2121 (15/08/2014 high). The break of the hourly resistance at 1.2076 (26/09/2014 high) increases the odds to see a further sideways consolidation. An hourly resistance stands at 1.2091.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future. As a result, further sideways moves are expected in the mediumterm.

Await fresh signal.

GOLD (in USD)

Succession of lower highs intact.

• Gold has thus far failed to make any followthrough after the breach of the support at 1208 (22/09/2014 low). A potential falling wedge formation could be underway. Hourly resistances stand at 1223 and 1236. An hourly support now lies at 1204 (30/09/2014 low).

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured. The recent break to the downside out of the symmetrical triangle confirms this scenario.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Weak bounce thus far.

• Silver has broken the hourly support at 17.34 (22/09/2014 low), confirming a strong bearish trend. In the short-term, prices are trying to bounce. Hourly resistances can be found at 17.45 (29/09/2014 low) and 17.74 (26/09/2014 high). An hourly support now lies at 16.87.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend and favours further decline towards the strong support at 14.64 (05/02/2010 low). A resistance lies at 18.88 (09/09/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.