USDCHF: Monitor the declining channel

EUR/USD

Recent succession of lower highs challenged.

• EUR/USD is moving within the horizontal range between 1.3503 and 1.3677. An hourly support lies at 1.3565 (20/06/2014 low, see also the 61.8% retracement). An initial resistance is given by the declining trendline (around 1.3614). Another resistance can be found at 1.3644 (19/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the long-term rising wedge (see also the support at 1.3673) indicates a clear deterioration of the technical structure. The long-term downside risk implied by the double-top formation is 1.3379. Key supports can be found at 1.3477 (03/02/2014 low) and 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

The major resistance at 1.7043 has held thus far.

• GBP/USD continues to challenge the major resistance at 1.7043. A bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 1.6923 (18/06/2014 low) holds. An initial support can be found at 1.6985 (intraday low).

• In the longer term, a bullish bias is favoured as long as the support at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low) holds. The persistent buying interest favours an eventual break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high). Other resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Moving sideways.

• USD/JPY is moving sideways despite the proximity of the support implied by the 200 day moving average (around 101.61). Another support lies at 101.43. Hourly resistances stand at 102.20 (20/06/2014 high, see also the declining trendline) and 102.36.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. Monitor the support area provided by the 200 day moving average and 100.76 (04/02/2014 low). A break of the key resistance at 103.02 is needed to suggest the end of the current consolidation phase. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Monitor the declining channel.

• USD/CHF has successfully tested the support at 0.8908 (05/06/2014 low, see also the 38.2% retracement). However, the bounce has thus far failed to break the resistance implied by the 61.8% retracement at 0.8974, while the recent succession of lower highs remains intact. Another support stands at 0.8883. A strong resistance area lies between 0.9012 and 0.9037.

• From a longer term perspective, the bullish breakout of the key resistance at 0.8953 suggests the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. A key resistance stands at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high).

Long 1 unit at 0.8794, Obj: Close remaining at 0.9115, Stop: 0.8872 (Entered: 2014-05-08).

USD/CAD

Persistent selling pressures underway.

• USD/CAD has broken the key support at 1.0814, ending a 5 week consolidation. The momentum is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.0833 (intraday high). An initial resistance lies at 1.0776 (intraday high).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom with a minimum target at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline (around 1.0628) and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Fading near its key resistance area.

• AUD/USD is weakening near the significant resistance area between 0.9438 (12/06/2014 high) and 0.9461. Hourly supports can be found at 0.9369 (23/06/2014 low) and 0.9319.

• In the medium-term, prices are moving within a horizontal range between 0.9206 and 0.9461. The direction of the breakout is likely to give the next significant trend. For the time being, we favour further sideways moves.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Grinding higher.

• GBP/JPY has breached the key resistance at 173.66. The short-term concerns stemming from Friday's shooting star have been alleviated by the size of yesterday's lower shadow. A break of the hourly support at 172.73 is needed to negate the short-term bullish bias. Another support can be found at 171.92 (intraday high, see also the rising channel). A key resistance stands at 174.85.

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support area defined by 163.89 (04/02/2014 low) and the 200 day moving average (see also the long-term rising trendline from the February 2013 low) holds. A key resistance lies at 174.85 (02/01/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Trying to move back above its 200 day moving average.

• EUR/JPY is bouncing after having broken the support implied by its 200 day moving average. The failure thus far to move back above it indicates persistent selling pressures. An hourly support now lies at 138.29 (23/06/2014 low), while a more significant support stands at 137.73. Hourly resistances can be found at 138.89 (19/06/2014 high) and 139.43 (10/06/2014 high).

• Despite the strong support at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), the long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. A strong resistance stands at 145.69 (27/12/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Moving sideways near the support at 0.7961.

• EUR/GBP is consolidating near the key support at 0.7961. The failure to break the hourly resistance at 0.8033 (intraday low) indicates a weak buying interest. Another hourly resistance lies at 0.8065 (12/06/2014 high).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8184 (14/05/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the long-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Short-term succession of lower highs intact.

• EUR/CHF has thus far not made any followthrough after the break of the support at 1.2166 (06/06/2014 low). An hourly resistance can be found at 1.2178 (20/06/2014 high). However, a break of the resistance at 1.2200 (09/06/2014 high) is needed to negate the downside risk implied by the recent break of the symmetrical triangle. Supports lie at 1.2152 (19/06/2014 low) and 1.2141.

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Current mild correction is short-term positive.

• Gold's mild correction after its recent sharp rise indicates a persistent buying interest. However, monitor the key resistance at 1331 (see also the 61.8% retracement) given the the shortterm overextended rise. Hourly supports stand at 1307 (20/06/2014 low) and 1298 (38.2% of the rise from 1258).

• Longer term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Further short-term strength likely in store.

• Silver has broken the key resistance at 20.41. The current short-term consolidation looks like an ascending triangle, which favours further short-term strength. A resistance lies at 21.79 (14/03/2014 high). Hourly supports can be found at 20.58 (20/06/2014 low) and 20.41 (previous resistance).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.