USDCHF: Monitor the resistance at 0.8896

EUR/USD

The bounce is showing signs of weakness.

• EUR/USD weakened yesterday, breaking the short-term rising trendline. Furthermore, the declining trendline still favours a bearish bias. Key supports stand at 1.3705 and 1.3643. Resistances can be found at 1.3847 (25/03/2014 high, see also the declining trendline) and 1.3876.

• Today's ECB meeting is likely to increase intraday volatility.

• In the medium-term, the break of the support at 1.3834 (11/03/2014 low, see also the rising channel) coupled with general overbought conditions favour a move lower towards the support at 1.3643. The recent high at 1.3967 is likely to act as a strong resistance.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Consolidating.

• GBP/USD is moving sideways after its recent rise. However, the short-term momentum remains positive as long as the hourly support at 1.6598 (28/03/2014 low) holds. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.6684 and 1.6718. Another hourly support stands at 1.6555 (27/03/2014 low).

• In the longer term, prices continue to move in a rising channel. As a result, a bullish bias remains favoured as long as the support at 1.6460 holds. Another key support stands at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Pushing higher.

• USD/JPY has broken the resistance at 103.76. Another horizontal resistance stands at 104.92 (16/01/2014 high). Monitor the hourly supports at 103.59 (02/04/2014 low) and 103.44 (31/03/2014 high) as the current rise looks short-term overextended.

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.66) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Monitor the resistance at 0.8896.

• USD/CHF has bounced close to the support implied by its rising trendline. Monitor the key resistance at 0.8896. Hourly supports stand at 0.8814 (01/04/2014 low) and 0.8787. Another key resistance lies at 0.8930.

• From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase. The recent technical improvements suggest weakening selling pressures. A key resistance lies at 0.8930.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Remains weak thus far.

• USD/CAD is trying to stabilise itself. However, the current short-term technical pattern (symmetrical triangle) still favours a bearish bias. A break of the initial resistance at 1.1078 (28/03/2014 high) is needed to improve the short-term technical structure. Another resistance stands at 1.1107 (27/03/2014 high, see also the 38.2% retracement). Supports can be found at 1.1001 (28/03/2014 low) and 1.0956.

• In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. The key resistance given by the 50% retracement (around 1.1236) of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 remains thus far intact. A key support stands at 1.0911 (19/02/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 at 1.1085, Obj: Close unit 1 at 1.1238, remaining at 1.1486, Stop: 1.1038.

AUD/USD

Challenging the support at 0.9214.

• AUD/USD has broken the key resistance at 0.9168, validating a 3 month bullish reversal pattern. However, monitor the hourly horizontal range between 0.9214 and 0.9295/0.9304 (01/04/2014 high), as a break lower would open the way for further short-term weakness towards the other support at 0.9154 (26/03/2014 low).

• In the medium-term, the decisive break of the strong resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) favours a further rise towards the key resistance at 0.9448.

• Longer term, the underlying downtrend still favours a bearish bias.

Long 2 units at 0.9175, Obj: Close unit 1 at 0.9429, remaining at 0.9691, Stop: 0.9204 (Entered: 2014-03-26).

GBP/JPY

Edging higher towards the key resistance at 173.66.

• GBP/JPY is grinding higher and is now approaching the key resistance at 173.66. Hourly supports can be found at 172.31 (02/04/2014 low) and 171.58 (intraday low). Another key resistance lies at 174.85.

• The break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key low at 160.41 (19/11/2013 low) holds.

• We have raised (again) our stop-loss on our remaining long position.

Long 1 unit at 169.75, Obj: Close unit 1 at 173.45, Stop: 172.20 (Entered: 2014-03-27).

EUR/JPY

Approaching the resistance at 143.79.

• EUR/JPY is challenging the resistance area between 143.38 (13/03/2014 high) and 143.79. Hourly supports can be found at 142.44 (intraday low) and 141.79 (intraday low).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds. Resistances can be found at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low) and 157.00 (08/09/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Remains weak thus far.

• EUR/GBP weakened yesterday, suggesting persistent selling pressures. A break of the key resistance at 0.8322 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary bounce. Supports stand at 0.8246 and 0.8191 (28/02/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the failure to make any follow-through after the break of the resistance at 0.8350 (06/02/2014 high) calls for caution as prices remain below the declining 200 day moving average. A key support area stands at between 0.8168 and 0.8158.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Improving.

• EUR/CHF significantly improved within its rising channel yesterday. The hourly resistance at 1.2207 (27/03/2014 high) has been breached. Another resistance stands at 1.2238. Hourly supports can now be found at 1.2171 (31/03/2014 low) and 1.2163.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

Oversold rebound underway?

• Gold is trying to bounce after the successful test of the support at 1276. A resistance for a temporary rebound is given by 1321 (see also the 38.2% retracement). An hourly resistance can be found at 1300. Another support lies at 1232.

• Longer term, we are sceptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. A move back to the previous lows at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) is favoured. A major resistance stands at 1434 (30/08/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Trying to form a short-term base formation.

• Silver is trying to form a short-term base formation whose resistance stands at 20.22. As a result, a break of this level would favour a further short-term upside potential. A key resistance remains at 20.58 (21/03/2014 high). Hourly supports can be found at 19.92 (01/04/2014 high) and 19.58.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance now stands at 23.09.

Await fresh signal.