Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
Again EU leaders meet to decide what to do with Greece, it is quite possible Greece to stay in the eurozone but some restrictions and severe monitoring to be applied over government actions. Greek's prime minister promised the world that will do many things but noone believes him, me too. So i expect that by the end of this year we shall encounter the same situation with endless Eu leaders' meetings and no decision for weeks. EUR is locked into a 200 pips consolidation range, and if agreement is reached it may jump to 1.1500 and then it will drop again. If Greece is kicked out this will mean EUR drop below 1.00, noone at ECB wants this so i am sure Greece will stay, but some additional requirements will be applied. Some better than previous data is expected over the Atlantic on Thursday. That same day we shall have ECB rate decision and mr.Draghi speech which i expect to move the market strong. It is possibe EUR to move in either direction so stay out of the market until any final decision for Greece is taken, otherwise you may loose all your money in market sharp moves.
GOLD seems not stable enough and even has tested 1147 last week. Daily indicators are bearish and recovery is possible only on Daily close above 1168. H4 indcators are also bearish so i expect this slide to continue some more this week. We have support at 1148 and 1141. First resistance is 1168 then 1188 and 1202.
NZD bounced off 0.6620 level and is currently at the resistance area 0.6730-0.6750. breaking above it on Daily will signal for upside continuation. If the attempt fails and the price drops below 0.6700 it may test 0.6620 again and even lower.
AUD still has no luck with the recovery, the price is not able to break the 0.7500 resistance and currently we are again below this level. Weekly and Daily indicators are bearish, H4 are also bearish but show some signs of possible recovery. For now we are in consolidation to bearish mode and will stay in this state until we have a Daily close above 0.7500.
JPY has attacked the dollar last week but all it has done is a quick test of the 120.40 support and a sharp recovery of the dollar then. Now we are back inside the positive Daily Ichimoku and once above 123.30 the upside will be fully restored and the way to 125.00 will be opened again.
GBP's upside is blocked by the very strong resistance area 1.5550-1.5570 and the price will stay locked inside 1.5430-1.5570 until any of these is broken. Prepare for more sideways trade here. I expect finally moves to develop to the upside, but for now it is still not clear enough. Indicators are giving mixed directions for now as this week we shall have plenty of data from the UK.
RUB is trying to gain back some of the lost positions but there are two very strong support levels and until they are broken both these downside moves may be considered for corrections to buy at better price. First support is at 54.60 and the second one is at 53.30. Resistance is at 57.60.
For today:
EUR - stay away form the market
GOLD SHORT below 1163 SL 1166 TP 1156-1148-1141
LONG GOLD above 1168 SL 1165 TP 1188-1196-1202
Good luck!
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