Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
After reaching 1.3950 EUR made some pullback to 1.3905 as expected and was trading in range yesterday waiting for the ECB rate decision today. Depending on what mr.Draghi will say the EUR may test the 1.4000 level or to drop back below 1.3850. I think he will support the EUR, and any lower value for jobless claims will lead to further dollar weakness, so we have all chances of testing 1.4000 level. However staying above 1.4000 will be the major problem for today.The price needs to stay above 1.4040 to confirm the 1.4000 as support level, until that it may be considered as resistance. To the downside breaking below 1.3850 will lead to test 1.3820-1.3790 but if that holds and is stable enough we may see a risk aversion and the price will attack 1.4000 again, so be careful. Today and tomorrow a high volatility will present, big players will try to hit as much SL as possibleq so do not allow too big SL. If SL is hit wait for H1 bar to close and decide again what to do.
GOLD dropped almost 20 USD yesterday, as 1316 was unbreakable. We have some support at 1287 but below that the metal will drop another 10 USD to test the diagonal support line at 1277. Recovery is possible only on H4 close above 1304.
NZD has tested 0.8630 support and now the way for recovery to the upside is clear, we are approaching a huge positive Ichimoku Slope on H4 which we have to climb up, so i expect the price to progress to the upside later today or tomorrow. The price is well supported by the 0.8630-20 area but dropping below may change the bullish outlook, so keep this in mind.
AUD come with a powerful recovery against the dollar. Currently thades around 0.9360 but today's target will be above 0.9400. The pair is supported at 0.9340 well so above that we are bullish.
JPY gave the dollar some fresh air as it recovered a bit but the outlook here is still dollar negative, it is quite possible to test 101.00 today or tomorrow. Testing will be short lived and the price will recover quickly to 101.80-90 again.
GBP developed a clear 'flag' formation both seen on H4 and Daily. We need to go through 1.6970 to restore the upside mood, but this will be quite easy. Do not forget today we are waiting also for BoE rate decision, and no surprises are expected. Some high volatility here too, so be very careful with the SL. If you have no idea what to do just stay away.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.3900 SL 1.3890 TP 1.3965-1.3990-1.4010-1.4030 you may add to Long above 1.3930 too, if SL hit reenter LONG above 1.3925
SHORT EUR below 1.3850 SL 1.3860 TP 1.3820-1.3800-1.3790-1.3765-1.3730
Drop to 1.3830 then recovery above 1.3870 = risk aversion ->enter LONG above 1.3890 SL 1.3870
SHORT GOLD below 1302 SL 1305 TP 1284-1278-1270
LONG GOLD above 1305 SL 1301 TP 1314-1318-1326-1331
Good luck!
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