Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro extends correction off 1.1341 (17 Mar recovery peak), following last Friday’s strong bearish close. Slow Stochastic of daily chart is reversing from overbought territory, signaling further easing, before bulls resume.
Setup of daily MA’s remains firmly bullish (double Golden Cross) and favors final push towards key barrier at 1.1374 (high of 2016, posted on 11 Feb), after completion of current corrective action.
Initial support lies at 1.1200 (hourly Ichimoku cloud base, followed by 1.1150 (daily Ichimoku cloud top, reinforced by rising 10SMA / near Fibo 38.2% of 1.0820/1.1341) which is expected to ideally contain dips.
Extended correction below 1.1150, to expose 1.1100 (30SMA) and breakpoint at 1.1055/45 zone (16 Mar trough / 200SMA).
Res: 1.1283; 1.1305; 1.1341; 1.1374
Sup: 1.1200; 1.1150; 1.1100; 1.1041
GBPUSD
Cable eases below daily cloud base at 1.4433, following double failure at 1.45 barrier, with Friday’s Doji, confirming indecision. Pullback could extend through initial support at 1.4311 (rising 10SMA) to 1.4250 (30SMA / Fibo 38.2% of 1.3834/1.4512 upleg), where dips should be contained, to keep in play bulls established on daily chart.
Otherwise, deeper correction could be anticipated on break below 1.4250, which will open 1.4173 (20SMA) and sideline short-term bulls on further easing.
Res: 1.4465; 1.4501; 1.4575; 1.4665
Sup: 1.4311; 1.4250; 1.4220; 1.4173
USDJPY
The pair remains biased lower, following Thu/Fri’s attempts below key 111 support, which so far failed to close below, opening space for extended consolidation. Strong bearish weekly close that came after double long-legged weekly Dojis, renewed downside pressure for clear break below 111 handle (floor of five-week 111.00/114.50 congestion) and extension of larger downtrend towards psychological 110.00 support and 109.70 (Fibo 138.2% projection of the downleg from 114.53), in extension.
Former lows of 01/09 Mar consolidation at 112.15, also Fibo 38.2% of 114.53/110.65 downleg, offer good resistance, which should ideally cap and keep intact pivots at 112.70/95 (descending 20 and 30 SMA’s).
Res: 112.15; 112.70; 112.95; 113.80
Sup : 111.20; 111.00; 110.65, 110.00
AUDUSD
Overall structure remains bullish, as the pair corrects off last Friday’s recovery high at 0.7678, following repeated failure to close above 0.7650 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.8161/0.6825 downleg / FE 161.8% of extended wave C from 0.6972, 09 Feb trough).
Friday’s close in red, with long upper shadow of daily candle, generated negative signal, however, the pair found temporary footstep at 0.7566, keeping intact initial support at 0.7530 (rising daily 10SMA).
While the latter holds, near-term focus will remain turned higher, with extended consolidation ahead of fresh attempts higher, seen likely.
Extension below 10SMA, would risk pullback towards 0.7460 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7106/0.7678), possibly to 0.7392 pivot (rising 20SMA).
Res: 0.7624; 0.7678; 0.7711; 0.7810
Sup: 0.7566; 0.7530; 0.7500; 0.7460
The Euro extends correction off 1.1341 (17 Mar recovery peak), following last Friday’s strong bearish close. Slow Stochastic of daily chart is reversing from overbought territory, signaling further easing, before bulls resume.
Setup of daily MA’s remains firmly bullish (double Golden Cross) and favors final push towards key barrier at 1.1374 (high of 2016, posted on 11 Feb), after completion of current corrective action.
Initial support lies at 1.1200 (hourly Ichimoku cloud base, followed by 1.1150 (daily Ichimoku cloud top, reinforced by rising 10SMA / near Fibo 38.2% of 1.0820/1.1341) which is expected to ideally contain dips.
Extended correction below 1.1150, to expose 1.1100 (30SMA) and breakpoint at 1.1055/45 zone (16 Mar trough / 200SMA).
Res: 1.1283; 1.1305; 1.1341; 1.1374
Sup: 1.1200; 1.1150; 1.1100; 1.1041
GBPUSD
Cable eases below daily cloud base at 1.4433, following double failure at 1.45 barrier, with Friday’s Doji, confirming indecision. Pullback could extend through initial support at 1.4311 (rising 10SMA) to 1.4250 (30SMA / Fibo 38.2% of 1.3834/1.4512 upleg), where dips should be contained, to keep in play bulls established on daily chart.
Otherwise, deeper correction could be anticipated on break below 1.4250, which will open 1.4173 (20SMA) and sideline short-term bulls on further easing.
Res: 1.4465; 1.4501; 1.4575; 1.4665
Sup: 1.4311; 1.4250; 1.4220; 1.4173
USDJPY
The pair remains biased lower, following Thu/Fri’s attempts below key 111 support, which so far failed to close below, opening space for extended consolidation. Strong bearish weekly close that came after double long-legged weekly Dojis, renewed downside pressure for clear break below 111 handle (floor of five-week 111.00/114.50 congestion) and extension of larger downtrend towards psychological 110.00 support and 109.70 (Fibo 138.2% projection of the downleg from 114.53), in extension.
Former lows of 01/09 Mar consolidation at 112.15, also Fibo 38.2% of 114.53/110.65 downleg, offer good resistance, which should ideally cap and keep intact pivots at 112.70/95 (descending 20 and 30 SMA’s).
Res: 112.15; 112.70; 112.95; 113.80
Sup : 111.20; 111.00; 110.65, 110.00
AUDUSD
Overall structure remains bullish, as the pair corrects off last Friday’s recovery high at 0.7678, following repeated failure to close above 0.7650 (Fibo 61.8% of 0.8161/0.6825 downleg / FE 161.8% of extended wave C from 0.6972, 09 Feb trough).
Friday’s close in red, with long upper shadow of daily candle, generated negative signal, however, the pair found temporary footstep at 0.7566, keeping intact initial support at 0.7530 (rising daily 10SMA).
While the latter holds, near-term focus will remain turned higher, with extended consolidation ahead of fresh attempts higher, seen likely.
Extension below 10SMA, would risk pullback towards 0.7460 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7106/0.7678), possibly to 0.7392 pivot (rising 20SMA).
Res: 0.7624; 0.7678; 0.7711; 0.7810
Sup: 0.7566; 0.7530; 0.7500; 0.7460
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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