EUR/JPY- Monitoring The Downtrend Channel

EUR/USD

Consolidating.

• EUR/USD is now consolidating after its last week's sharp bullish move. Daily resistance lies at 1.1387 (20/11/2015 high). Hourly support may be found at 1.0711 (05/01/2016 low). Yet, expected to show further consolidation.

• In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deteriorations favours a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 low).

GBP/USD

Further consolidation.

• GBP/USD's short-term momentum is pausing Hourly resistance can be found at 1.4668 (08/02/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.4081 (21/01/2015 low). Expected to show further increase.

• The long-term technical pattern is negative and favours a further decline towards the key support at 1.3503 (23/01/2009 low), as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5340/64 (04/11/2015 low see also the 200 day moving average). However, the general oversold conditions and the recent pick-up in buying interest pave the way for a rebound.

USD/JPY

Lack of momentum.

• USD/JPY is pausing around 117.00 and is still trading in a range from 116.00 from 122.00. Hourly resistance lies at 123.76 (18/11/2015 high). Hourly support lies can be found at 115.98 (20/01/2016 low). Expected to show further decline.

• A long-term bullish bias is favored as long as the strong support at 115.57 (16/12/2014 low) holds. A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) is favored. A key support can be found at 116.18 (24/08/2015 low).

USD/CHF

Consolidating.

• USD/CHF is pausing below parity. Hourly support is located at 0.9786 (14/12/2015 low) and hourly resistance can be found at 1.0328 (27/11/2015 high). Expected to show continued decline.

• In the long-term, the pair has broken resistance at 0.9448 and key resistance at 0.9957 suggesting further uptrend. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). As long as these levels hold, a long term bullish bias is favoured.

USD/CAD

Back to bullish?

• USD/CAD has increased by two figures last Friday. Yet, the bearish momentum keeps going. Hourly support lies at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3542. Daily resistance can be found at 1.4690 (20/01/2015 high). Expected to show further short-term upside move.

• In the longer term, the break of the key resistance at 1.3065 (13/03/2009 high) has indicated increasing buying pressures, which favours further medium-term strengthening. Strong resistance is given at 1.4948 (21/03/2003 high). Support can be found at 1.2832 (15/10/2015 low) then 1.1731 (06/01/2015 low).

AUD/USD

Failed to break downtrend channel.

• AUD/USD is still in a short-term upside momentum. Hourly support lies at 0.6827 (15/01/2015 low). Hourly resistance is given at 0.7328 (31/12/2015 high). Even if the mediumterm technical structure remains clearly negative, expected to show continued short-term increase.

• In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view. In addition, we still note that the pair remains well below the 200-dma which confirms selling pressures.

EUR/CHF

Consolidating after bullish move.

• EUR/CHF's bullish momentum seems to consolidate. Hourly resistance lies at 1.1200 (04/02/2016 high). Hourly support lies at 1.0733 (28/08/2015 low). Expected to show further increase towards 1.1200.

• In the longer term, the technical structure is positive as prices have broken resistance at 1.1049 (11/09/20115 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY

Monitoring the downtrend channel.

• EUR/JPY is monitoring the upper bound implied by the downtrend channel. Hourly resistance lies at 134.60 (04/12/2015 high). Stronger resistance is located at 137.45 (17/09/2015 high). Expected to bounce back.

• In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Key supports stand at 124.97 (13/06/2013 low) and 118.73 (25/02/2013 low). A key resistance can be found at 141.06 (04/06/2015 high).

EUR/GBP

Pushing higher.

• EUR/GBP has exited its range by breaking hourly resistance at 0.7665 (21/01/2015 high). hourly support can be found at 0.7525 (22/01/2015 low). Expected to show further increase.

• In the long-term, prices tend to reverse from the underlying declining trend. The general oversold conditions suggest a growing upside momentum. A key resistance at 0.7592 (03/02/2015) has been broken.

GOLD (in USD)

Targeting 1191.00.

• Gold continues to move higher. Hourly support is given at 1046 (03/12/2015 low) and hourly resistance can be found at 1191 (15/10/2015 high). Expected to show a deeper upside move.

• In the long-term, the underlying downtrend (see declining channel) continues to favour a bearish bias. A break of the resistance at 1223 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary rebound. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD)

Back to 15.00.

• Silver keeps on pushing higher. Hourly support is given at 14.16 (29/01/2016 low). Hourly resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement has been broken. The overall technical structure suggests further increase.

• In the long-term, the break of the major support area between 18.64 (30/05/2014 low) and 18.22 (28/06/2013 low) confirms an underlying downtrend. Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009). A key resistance stands at 18.89 (16/09/2014 high).

Crude Oil (in USD)

Weakening.

• Crude is definitely not recovering. The technical structure remains clearly negative in a context of oil oversupply. Hourly support is given at 26.19 (20/01/2016 low) and hourly resistance can be found at 34.82 (28/01/2016 high). Expected to see further decline.

• In the long-term, crude oil is on a sharp decline and is of course no showing any signs of recovery. Strong support at 24.82 (13/11/2002) is now on target. Crude oil is holding way below its 200-Day Moving Average (setting up at around 47). There are currently no signs that a reverse trend may happen.

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