Gonçalo Moreira, CMT
Independent Analyst
- As long as we perceive no weekly close above 1.11, the pair will stay in the lower half of the trading range of the last 12 months and on preparedness to quench 1.0500 strong yearly support;
- Daily RSI and MACD momentum readings are in positive but the ascending orientation is insignificant. New oscillator highs must occur to change the short-term price trend from aimless meandering to confident longs;
- Volatility shows the market is dozing off again after the ECB-provoqued spasm and thereby still trapped inside the levels achieved along 2015. A break of the ATR channel associated with a price/volume breakout would be conclusive for the near future direction;
- There’s a lot of thin air below 1.08 the reason why I prefer to cluster limit longs between 1.06 and 1.05, specifically at 1.0555 and 1.0582 both with 50 pip targets. Another few longs are 1.0760 and 1.0849 for instance, just beneath current quoting;
- Should the Euro currency attempt to escape higher, chasing the elusive 1.11 barrier, it would ignite my shorts placed at 1.1116, 1.1102 and 1.1131.
The trading methodology reported in this analysis is based on a non-directional approach. It is meant to capture the most amount of pips from the constant price oscillations, either up or down. Each trade has a take profit of 50 pips, a stop loss of 500 pips. The size of each trade is regular, but trades can be stacked around key support and resistance zones, increasing the overall position size around certain price zones. The system can perform either in trending or range bound markets, but it suffers when there is an extreme unidirectional price advance. Buy and sell positions are taken with two separate real accounts.
To learn more about the method, you can watch these special webinar series:
Exploring the Coast Line of Foreign Exchange Land - Part I
Exploring the Coast Line of Foreign Exchange Land - Part II
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