Daily Forecast - 07 March 2016
Eurostoxx March Contract
EuroStoxx below 3030 adds pressure & targets first support at 3000/2995. A break below 2990 targets 2980 & as far as the best support of the day at 2970/65. Although the longer term outlook is more negative a low for the day is likely here. However a break below 2950 is a sell signal & targets 2930/25. If we continue lower look for 3 week bull trend line support at 2910/05. This is the last line of defence for bulls this week.
Important resistance again today at late January high at 3055/60 & strong longer term trend line resistance at 3065/70 in severely overbought conditions. **TO REPEAT: There is a very high risk this area sees an end to the bear trend recovery.** Shorts need stops above 3090. Bulls really need a close above 3100 to feel more confident longer term.
Ftse March Contract
FTSE outlook turning more negative & holding below 6160 targets first trend line support at 6145/40 but 6120/15 is the most important support of the day. A bounce from here is possible on the first test perhaps but be careful. Longs need stops below 6095. A break lower is a sell signal & targets 6080/75 then support at 6060/55.
Again strong trend line resistance at 6205/10 with a good chance of a high for the day. We have further strong resistance at 6225/35 so there is a big risk that the bear trend recovery ends here. However if we continue higher look for further strong 200 day moving average resistance at 6270. Many obstacles for bulls in severely overbought conditions.
Dax March Contract
Dax hit our target & strong longer term trend line resistance at 9890/9900 & topped exactly here, as predicted. TO REPEAT: **This may signal a high for the bear market recovery.** This trend line resistance moves up a little to late January highs at 9923 but it is only a daily close above 10000 that could put bulls back in short term control. We could then target 10050/60 & but strong resistance at 10100/110 is the next target where the bear market could resume. Even above here we meet the 100 day moving average at 10200, another big obstacle.
Below 9800 adds pressure & targets first support at 9720/10. A break below 9680 signals further losses to best support for today at 9615/05. A low for the day must be seen or bears are likely to feel far more confident again. A break below 9580 triggers stops & targets minor support at 9510/05 then 9450/40.
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