Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
If you take a step back and look at the euro it has basically been trading sideways now for three weeks. It may have broken the downtrend in that time but still essentially there has been no real buying pressure and the momentum indicators have simply been unwinding from a deeply oversold position and ultimately this should help to renew downside potential. There has been little attempt to back the bulls in any discernible way as the resistance between $1.1500/$1.1530 remains firmly intact. It is as though the euro has spent all this time waiting for a catalyst. The uncertainty surrounding Greece and its debt program seems to be what traders are waiting for and with signs that the situation could be improving the euro has appreciated slightly (albeit once more not too significantly). The intraday hourly chart simply reflects a ranging position, with the RSI broadly spending its time moving between 30 and 70 meaning that there are opportunities to trade the oversold/overbought levels for the very near term traders. A move above yesterday’s $1.1448 high opens $1.1500. Monday’s low at $1.1317 protects a retreat back towards the range low at $1.1260.
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