DON'T KICK YOURSELF - So US traders are off celebrating and markets will be thin for the remainder of the week. As per Wednesday's commentary, be careful out there and make sure not to force anything. Clearly, it is never a good idea to force a trade, but forcing a trade during holiday trade is even worse. Why? Because you have yet another reason to kick yourself when the trade doesn't work out. In the spirit of today's light trade, I will go ahead and respect the holiday and keep the commentary light as well.
FIRST REASON - Overall, some interesting price action into Thanksgiving. The key takeaway is the pared back appetite for long USD positions despite ongoing fundamentals which would normally be supportive. I would highlight two important developments that could be factoring into this price action, both of which should only have a short-term impact. The first is a US Dollar market that has been heavily bought over the past several months and is now aggressively weighted long Dollars. Whenever you get such aggressive positioning, there are bound to be periods of profit taking so the ratio can normalize a bit.
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