The NFP Report is Expected to Break Above 200,000 New Jobs in February

U.S. employment data has been mixed ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. A weak Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Employment Index showing a contraction on Thursday is being balanced against a strong ADP Private payrolls report that beat expectations on Wednesday. The ADP Research Institute reported that US private payrolls grew by 214,000 in February beating the forecast of 185,000. Usually there is a low correlation between the ADP and the NFP due Friday, but aside from the employment change disappointment in January they have consistently beaten expectations in the past four months. The private payrolls report shows manufacturing is still weak with a loss of 9,000 jobs, but the optimism comes from the expansion of the services sector that added 59,000 new jobs.

The USD declined against the EUR after the release of the ISM Employment Index that posted a contraction at 49.7 in February. Overall the U.S. service sector continues to expand albeit at a slower pace, but given the focus on employment data this week investors sold U.S. dollars ahead of what could be a disappointing Non-farm payrolls number. Last month even though the NFP headline number was less than anticipated the fact that wages grew and the unemployment rate was lower was enough to boost the USD.

The NFP will be published by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday, March 4 at 8:30 am EST. Employment is the strongest pillar of the U.S. economic recovery since the credit crisis and the influence on the Fed’s interest rate decision is significant. Economist’s forecasts range around 185,000 to 200,000 new jobs added. Anything outside of that range for the biggest forex indicator will set a direction for the USD.



US Employment to Make Case for Economic Recovery

The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) came in under the anticipated 189,000 new jobs in January. Although it disappointed with a 151,000 jobs added (still showing a positive trend) the USD rallied as average hourly earnings gained more than estimated at 0.5 percent. As the U.S. nears full employment as per the headline employment figures the Fed diversified their focus to look at other employment indicators that could shed a positive light on inflation. While the number of jobs has increased, wages have not kept up with that growth. The unemployment rate also managed to drop to 4.9 percent to an 8 year low.

The February NFP report is forecasted to show a gain of around 195,000 jobs, with a more modest 0.2 percent gain in average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.9 percent. The U.S. Federal Reserve still relies on the employment component as the sturdiest pillar of their claim of a moderate recovery of the U.S. economy. A weaker than expected NFP could seriously challenge another rate hike by the Fed. As it stands the Fed is not expected to change its benchmark rate in the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting given that the global economic conditions have worsened in 2016 since it raised rates in December of 2015. A strong NFP number alone dos not have the power to put March back into the mix, but it could boost the number of rate hikes priced in by the market.

FX market events to watch this week:

Friday, March 4
8:30 am CAD Trade Balance
8:30 am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
8:30 am USD Non-Farm Employment Change
8:30 am USD Trade Balance
8:30 am USD Unemployment Rate

*All times EST

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.

Opinions are the authors — not necessarily OANDA’s, its officers or directors. OANDA’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy apply. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1180 following the Fed’s decision

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1180 following the Fed’s decision

EUR/USD now picks up extra pace and revisits the 1.1180 region after the Federal Reserve decided to cut its interest rates by 50 bps at its event on Wednesday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD hits fresh tops near 1.3300 on weaker Dollar

GBP/USD hits fresh tops near 1.3300 on weaker Dollar

The Greenback is now accelerating its decline following the Fed’s decision to reduce its interest rates, sending GBP/USD to fresh tops in the 1.3290 zone.

GBP/USD News
Gold clinches a record high near $2,600 ahead of Powell

Gold clinches a record high near $2,600 ahead of Powell

Prices of Gold gather extra steam and hit an all-time top near the $2,600 mark per ounce troy as investors continue to assess the 50 bps rate cut by the Federal Reseve and warm up for the usual press conference by Chief Jerome Powell.

Gold News
Federal Reserve set for first interest-rate reduction in four years amid growing bets of jumbo cut

Federal Reserve set for first interest-rate reduction in four years amid growing bets of jumbo cut

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower the policy rate after the September meeting. The revised Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks could provide important clues about the rate outlook.

Read more
UK CPI set to grow at stable 2.2% in August ahead of BoE meeting

UK CPI set to grow at stable 2.2% in August ahead of BoE meeting

The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics will release August Consumer Price Index figures on Wednesday. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, is one of the main factors on which the Bank of England bases its monetary policy decision, meaning the data is considered a major mover of the Pound Sterling.

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures