EUR/USD Forecast: retracing from fresh highs


The EUR/USD rose up to 1.1270 on the back of more signals growth is picking up in the region: the release of the Markit Services and Composite PMIs, surpassed expectations in most economies including the EU, and only German readings ticked slightly lower. Nevertheless, worse than expected EU Retail Sales in March sent the pair lower, down to current 1.1200 area. Later on in the day, the US will release the ADP private survey, with expectations of 200K new jobs against previous 189K. The data is key ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls figures, and if the data disappoints, the dollar can come under further pressure.

Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA remains flat around 1.1180 providing intraday support, whilst the technical indicators turned lower above their mid-lines. The overall stance is bullish, albeit a break below the mentioned support may lead to a bearish move down to 1.1120, whilst if this last gives up, the bearish momentum may accelerate towards 1.1065, yesterday's low. A recovery above 1.1230 on the other hand, should favor an upward extension towards the 1.1270/80 price zone. 

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