The EUR/USD is about to close the week below the 1.3400 level, having held these last days in a 100 tight range above the year low of 1.3332 posted August 6th, practically unchanged from past week update. From a fundamental point of view, data has been weak both sides of the shore, failing to trigger some directional strength; thin volumes typical of the north hemisphere summer had did the rest.
Aside from the normal scheduled data, market is being affected late Friday, by news Ukrainian forces attacked in Eastern Ukraine a Russian military convoy to stop humanitarian aid to the region, sending stocks strongly down across the world, and boosting gold and yen. The dollar however, seems to have temporarily lost its safe haven charm, short term down against the EUR.
The bigger picture however, is a still bearish for the EUR/USD with the daily chart showing price retraced from a bearish 20 SMA, while indicators corrected oversold readings, but remain in negative territory. The weekly chart presents a clearer bearish tone, with indicators still heading south in negative territory, and candles showing lower highs and lower lows. But with the large amount of shorts in the pair according to latest COT report, the downside has remained limited, as market has been unable to shrug off some of those bears.
At this point, the neutral stance prevail with 1.3440 being the immediate critical resistance level to break, to trigger some upward moves: price has been unable to overcome it ever since late July. If price manages to extend above it, then stops will likely be triggered, favoring an upward continuation towards the 1.3500 price zone. However, it will be above this last that the longer term bearish pressure will begin to ease and not before.
On the other hand, 1.3332 mentioned year low is the key support to break during the upcoming days, to confirm a continuation of the dominant bearish trend: once broken, a quick run towards 1.3295, November 2013 monthly low comes at sight, while once below this last, the bearish move can extend towards 1.3170/1.3200 price zone.
View Live Chart for EUR/USD
Aside from the normal scheduled data, market is being affected late Friday, by news Ukrainian forces attacked in Eastern Ukraine a Russian military convoy to stop humanitarian aid to the region, sending stocks strongly down across the world, and boosting gold and yen. The dollar however, seems to have temporarily lost its safe haven charm, short term down against the EUR.
The bigger picture however, is a still bearish for the EUR/USD with the daily chart showing price retraced from a bearish 20 SMA, while indicators corrected oversold readings, but remain in negative territory. The weekly chart presents a clearer bearish tone, with indicators still heading south in negative territory, and candles showing lower highs and lower lows. But with the large amount of shorts in the pair according to latest COT report, the downside has remained limited, as market has been unable to shrug off some of those bears.
At this point, the neutral stance prevail with 1.3440 being the immediate critical resistance level to break, to trigger some upward moves: price has been unable to overcome it ever since late July. If price manages to extend above it, then stops will likely be triggered, favoring an upward continuation towards the 1.3500 price zone. However, it will be above this last that the longer term bearish pressure will begin to ease and not before.
On the other hand, 1.3332 mentioned year low is the key support to break during the upcoming days, to confirm a continuation of the dominant bearish trend: once broken, a quick run towards 1.3295, November 2013 monthly low comes at sight, while once below this last, the bearish move can extend towards 1.3170/1.3200 price zone.
View Live Chart for EUR/USD
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