GBPUSD: Preparing To Ride The Bearish Train !!

In our previous analysis "GBPUSD: Rushing to Bearish Train, Is It Wise ?!", the alternate count expected Cable to unfold upwards to complete a second wave correction and Cable unfolded as expected and both targets were reached and exceeded.

This week, both main and alternate counts expect Cable to ultimately unfold downwards sharply in an impulsive manner, The only difference is that the main count expects that decline to be just around the corner while the alternate count expects an immediate impulsive decline.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

- Invalidation Points: 1.5200 -- 1.5658

- Confirmation Point: 1.5510

- Upwards Targets: 1.5516

- Wave number: ii orange

- Wave structure: Corrective

- Wave pattern: Zigzag

Alternate Count

- Invalidation Point: 1.5510

- Confirmation Point: 1.5427

- Downwards Targets: 1.5401 -- 1.5352

- Wave number: (3) aqua

- Wave structure: Motive

- Wave pattern: Impulse

Main Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave C maroon is unfolding downwards and within it intermediate waves (1) and (2) black might be complete and that intermediate wave (3) black has started unfolding towards the downside.

Within intermediate wave (3) black, it is expected that waves i and ii pink are complete and wave iii pink is underway.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave (y) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave c orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple with wave 1 purple unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

This count expects that wave iii pink is at its early stages with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave (iii) green it is likely that wave i orange is complete and wave ii orange is at its very late stages.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave ii orange is unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple with waves A and B purple complete and wave C purple is unfolding upwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.5510.

At 1.5516 wave (5) aqua would reach 1.618 of wave (1) aqua.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5658 as wave ii orange may not retrace more than 100 % of wave i orange and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5415 as within wave (5) aqua no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Alternate Wave Count

The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions within wave C purple.

This count expects that wave (5) aqua within wave C purple is complete and therefore this count expects that wave ii orange is complete and that wave iii orange is at its very early stages.

Within wave iii orange it is likely that waves (1) and (2) aqua are complete and that wave (3) aqua is starting to unfold downwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5427.

At 1.5401 wave (3) aqua would reach equality with wave (1) aqua and at 1.5352 wave (3) aqua would reach 1.618 of wave (1) aqua.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5510 as wave (2) aqua may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (1) aqua and it should be noted that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave (2) aqua once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave (3) aqua is underway.

We may also wish to keep an eye on the daily update GBP USD Forecast.