The following are the intraday outlooks for the USD Index (DXY), EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Spot Gold, and Crude Oil as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
USD INDEX: An absolute minimum target met. With the move above 95.48 the absolute minimum target for the bull triangle, a new trend high has been achieved. The ideal target is however set at 97.07 so there’s still ample room to advance should the market decide to do so. For today it is also essential that we don’t close below 94.91, creating a bearish key day reversal hence indicating a premature ending to the current ascent. Ideally buyers at the low end, 95.25, of the weekend gap to prevent a deeper drop.
EUR/USD: Small pause before lower. Since the break of 1.1262 on Thursday the pair has continued lower albeit at a much slower pace. The slowing momentum, an hourly five wave pattern and a couple of 161.8% Fibo projection points all points to a possible minor upside reaction (1.1240?) before making a go at the 1.1098 low point.
USD/CAD: Soon ready to burst higher. With the bullish key day reversal on Thursday the final subwave, e, within the triangle was put in place. The next step should accordingly be a break higher exiting the triangle and taking aim up into the 1.30’s. Dips down to the 1.2450/60 area should be seen as buying opportunities.
Spot Gold: Looks set to test the $1,240s. From an Elliott wave perspective it’s hard to make out what’s currently unfolding, but for a near-term trader/bull a break over 1,223 should be encouraging for an attempt to also break resistance at 1,236\38. Those bulls would be less happy if local support at 1,204/01 is lost again. Current intraday stretches are located at 1,204 & 1,229.
Brent Crude: Headed into a 63.00\65.45 test. Trendline support seems to be respected still. Price action is mixed to bullish and a wider 63.00\65.45 zone of resistance seems to be in for a test. It is worth noting that the Feb monthly candle is potentially bullish and is posting a task for trend-following bears to neutralize. Current intraday stretches are located at 60.00 & 63.70.
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