The Australian Dollar outperformed overnight as markets returned from the Easter holiday. The US Dollar is looking to Existing Home Sales data to drive Fed policy bets.
Talking Points:
Australian Dollar Outperforms as Markets Return from Easter Holiday
Quiet European Calendar Leaves “Re-Liquefaction” to Drive FX Rates
US Dollar Eyes Existing Home Sales Data to Inform QE “Taper” Bets
The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. A discrete catalyst for the move is not readily apparent. The advance did appear to track gains in Australian 10-year bond prices and the S&P/ASX 200 stock index however. That means the uptick may have reflected little more than a re-establishing of positions after the long Easter break that had Australian markets closed since last Thursday.
Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European trading hours leaves the post-holiday return of liquidity across financial markets as the likely catalyst for price action in the near term. As with the Aussie Dollar overnight, this process can drive meaningful volatility. Teasing out a defined directional bias for such moves seems more like a guessing game than sound analysis however.
Later in the day, the spotlight turns to US Existing Home Sales data. The report is expected to show a 0.9 percent drop in March, marking the third consecutive decline. Economic data outcomes from the world’s largest economy notably improved relative to forecasts in the past two weeks however (according to data from Citigroup). If that trend continues, ebbing doubt about the continued withdrawal of Fed stimulus may offer yield-based support for the US Dollar.
Critical Levels
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