EUR/USD to stay below 1.35

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD to stay below 1.35

“The euro's fate will all be about the FOMC and then the nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week. I'm looking for a $1.3400 to $1.3470 range until then.”

- Jeffrey Halley, Saxo Capital Markets (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Right now this week appears to be quiet in terms of volatility, but this should change before the weekend. In any case, the currency pair is expected to be capped by 1.3530/00. Accordingly, the bias is negative. For the outlook to be changed to bullish, the bears have to give up the major down-trend line at 1.3850, which seems to be unlikely given the current conditions. Right now the support at 1.3385/69 is in more danger.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Neither bulls (55%) nor bears (45%) are able to take control of the market, and the difference between them remains insignificant. Meanwhile, a large advantage of sell orders over the buy ones declined, namely from 30 to 14 percentage points.

GBP/USD may rebound from 1.69

“Expect another day of hushed trading as the market continues to bide its time ahead of the mass data releases at the end of the week.”

- IG (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook

  The Cable continues putting strong pressure on 1.6982/73, but for now the bulls stand their ground. Despite its importance, a breach of this area will not imply a significant drop of the price. Just 50 pips South from it there is another cluster of supports (up-trend and 100-day SMA), which is reckoned capable of stopping a potential sell-off. In the meantime, the technical indicators are sending positive signals, suggesting the rally did not fade out completely. 

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Through there are still more bears in the market, they are quickly losing their positions. Five days ago they took up 72% of all traders, yesterday—63%, now—59%. As for the orders, there is no real difference between the buy (49%) and sell (51%) commands.

USD/JPY extends rally from 101

“The dollar is being bought back against its major peers. The greenback could touch 102 yen today now that U.S. long-term yields seem to have found a bottom.”

- Ueda Harlow (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook
  
  Despite the amount and toughness of the obstacles USD/JPY is currently facing, the currency pair is successful at pushing through the resistances. If the seven-month down-trend and 100-day SMA at 102 are broken, the U.S. Dollar will have a good opportunity to test a combination of the monthly R1 and 200-day SMA at 102.50/32. But there will still be a long way to go until this year’s high at 105.44, which looks to be out of reach at the moment.

• Traders’ Sentiment
  
  There are relatively less bullish market participants than yesterday, as their share lost three percentage points, but they are still dominating with 71%. Concerning the commands, 59% are set to purchase and 41% are set to sell the Greenback against the Yen.

USD/CHF stops after six-day winning streak

“I think it may be about time for investors to feel signs that the dollar will gain momentum.”

- Marito Ueda, FX Prime (based on MarketWatch)

• Pair’s Outlook

  USD/CHF failed to rise for a seventh day in a row by giving up 10 pips yesterday, but this does not invalidate the bullish outlook on the pair. The nearest support is at 0.9023, represented by the weekly PP, and as long as the U.S. Dollar is above 0.90, 0.9156 (2014 high and monthly R3) will be viewed as a target in the mid-term. However, the monthly technical indicators in the meantime are mostly pointing downwards.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Just as yesterday or five days ago an overwhelming majority of the market is considering the Buck to be undervalued with respect to the Franc, namely 74% of the SWFX market participants. But at the same time there is no difference between the buy and sell orders.