Collapsing commodities drive dollar down

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar remained under pressure through trade on Monday marking a 3rd consecutive day of decline. The Aussie was forced lower breaking short term supports at 0.7730 as investors piled behind the USD on upbeat interest rate expectations and falling commodity prices. Profit taking took hold as Iron ore slumped to a 6 year low having lost 4% since Thursday and prompting ICAC to investigate comments from producers calling for a production cap to stabilise prices. The AUD has lost over 2.5 cents since hitting 0.7915 last Tuesday and opens this morning buying 0.7641 US cents. Attentions now turn to Building Approvals and Chinese Manufacturing PMI for direction through Tuesday.  

• We expect a range today of 0.7510 - 0.7810

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollars downward trajectory continued on Monday breaking technical supports and falling below 0.7500. Plunging commodity prices and an uptick in investor confidence surrounding U.S interest rate expectations saw markets rally behind the Greenback. With little macroeconomic support available of late the Kiwi has been at the mercy offshore vices having fallen over 1.5 cents since touching 0.7675 last week. Attentions now turn to ANZ business confidence for local directional impetus while offshore stimuli will come from Chinese Manufacturing PMI and US consumer confidence.

• We expect a range today of 0.7380 - 0.7580

Great British Pound:

Sterling remained subdued through trade on Monday failing to hold onto levels above 1.49. Investors sent Cable lower piling support behind the Greenback as the disparity and gap in IR expectations and monetary policy continues to widen. With inflation at record lows markets anticipate the Bank of England will be forced to maintain its neutral and accommodative policy stance well into 2016, a contrasting expectation when compared with the Fed’s outlook. Attentions turn to Final GDP numbers and the Current Account Balance for direction today, however as central bank policy continues to drive direction the likelihood of any significant rally off the back of these data sets is slim.

• We expect a range today of 1.9210 - 1.9630

Majors:

The Greenback recouped losses suffered into last weeks close as the Euro sagged across the board amidst concerns Greece will fail to meet the reform measures required to secure additional aid. While spokespersons in Athens remain upbeat, commentary for Eurozone creditors (in particular Germany) are somewhat contradictory calling for a more detailed list of reforms if they are to extend the 240 Billion Euro aid package in 3 weeks’ time.  Greece’s failure to meet the troika’s demands thus far has dampened market optimism throughout a period where macroeconomic data sets appear to be turning. Stronger than anticipated German and Spanish CPI supported expectations of an upbeat Eurozone inflation read as CPI estimates are released today ahead of manufacturing numbers on Wednesday. The disparity in expected monetary policy action drove direction through trade on Monday and continues to weigh heavily on any meaningful Euro relief rally. While Fed action and market expectations have realigned to some degree investors continue to support the world’s base currency on the assumption the U.S Central Bank will adjust rates at some point into the end of the year. Attentions turn to Consumer Confidence today ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls Friday.

Data releases

• AUD: HIA New Home Sales m/m and Private Sector Credit
• NZD: ANZ Business Confidence
• JPY: Average Cash Earnings and Housing Starts
• GBP: Current Account Balance, Final GDP q/q and Revised Business Investment q/q
• EUR: German Retail Sales, German Unemployment Change, Italian Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimates, Core CPI and Employment Rate  
• USD: FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI