Halo Financial Team
Halo Financial
Today's Highlights
IMF downgrade Global Growth
Commodity currencies gain
UK production numbers this morning
FX Market Overview
Overnight the dollar has continued to weaken with commodity and emerging market currencies benefitting. While this relief rally is welcome it may be short lived given the weaker underlying fundamentals. Weaker construction figures from Australia and softer trade data from Canada will certainly give the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada more reason to consider further cuts in interest rates. Yesterday the International Monetary Fund lowered their global growth forecast warning of the increasing risk of a global recession. They stated that "downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced than they did even a few months ago" and that growth is now projected to be 3.6% against 3.8% only in July. Market reaction was fairly muted as it is no secret that the IMF would prefer it if the Federal Reserve were to delay their planned rate hike until later next year in light of the slowdown in China and increased geo political tensions. Manufacturing output climbed in August according to data already released this morning taking it to its highest level since 2011. This has helped the Pound rally from its recent lows but it is worth remembering that these figures in isolation are not as robust as they first seem. Both manufacturing and Industrial sectors are struggling to reach pre-recession levels and have only improved from a very low base. Tomorrow's interest rate setting meeting will be more important for the pound as although there is unlikely to be a change in policy the minutes of the meeting will give us an idea of exactly what the members of the committee are thinking and how soon interest rates may rise. And we are delighted to announce that we have a new website with a fresh new look, which went live yesterday. Some of the key features are that you can now view our website easily on mobile; we’ve compiled a fresh new version of our blog so you can now access more news in a more organised way; and there’s a wider choice of guides and brochures for you to download in our Free Guides section.
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EUR/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.1150
EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel slightly above 1.1150 on Friday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, comments from central bank officials and the risk mood could drive the pair's action heading into the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3300, looks to post strong weekly gains
GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day near 1.3300, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales data for August. The pair remains on track to end the week, which featured Fed and BoE policy decisions, with strong gains.
Gold extends rally to new record-high above $2,610
Gold (XAU/USD) preserves its bullish momentum and trades at a new all-time high above $2,610 on Friday. Heightened expectations that global central banks will follow the Fed in easing policy and slashing rates lift XAU/USD.
Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap
SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps. RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls. After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session.
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