Greek deadlock continues as payment deadline looms

United States Dollar:

The recent run of soft US data continued on Friday with the latest monthly core durable goods orders missing targets. The release showed a drop of -0.2% when a 0.2% increase was expected. April has seen non-farms, retail sales, building permits and PPI data fall short of market expectations. The latest FOMC statement is to be released on Wednesday evening and it seems unlikely we will see a more hawkish tone on the back of this poor run. It seems the first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade will not be happening in June and may not happen at all in 2015. It’s a relatively quiet start to the week with today’s UK CBI industrial expectations the only data of any note. Tomorrow sees the first estimate of Q1 GDP from the UK with 0.5% growth expected. US Q1 GDP data is released on Wednesday with an annualised 1.0% expected. Cable currently trades at 1.5170.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5030 to 1.52.

Euro:

Greece and its creditors have so far failed to come to a deal to enable the beleaguered country get access to further bailout funds before it has to pay state pensions and public sector salaries at the end of this week. The ongoing negotiations will no doubt dominate the news this week putting pressure on the euro and Greek bonds. The Greek government has asked its state-owned companies to hand over any spare cash in their accounts to the government to try and cover the outstanding payments should a deal not materialise before the end of the week. On the data-front eurozone flash CPI is released on Thursday with an uptick from -0.1% to zero expected. Other releases will more than likely be overshadowed by the ongoing Eurogroup meetings. GBP/EUR currently trades at 1.3960 with EUR/USD at 1.0860.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3880 to 1.4040.

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars:

New Zealand has a bank holiday today on account of Anzac day falling on a weekend this year. Later this week sees the RBNZ interest rate decision and accompanying statement. Rates are expected to remain on hold at 3.5% as however it will be interesting to note whether future rate cuts are hinted at in the accompanying statement given how low the level of inflation is. Quarterly CPI released on 19th April showed a faster than expected drop to -0.3%. Expect movement from both the Aussie and the Kiwi should the US GDP data print much higher/lower than expected. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speaks tonight in Sydney; other than that it’s a quiet week on the data front from Australia. AUD/USD is at .7815; GBP/AUD is at 1.9390; NZD/USD is at .7605 with GBP/NZD at 1.9920.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9325 to 1.9490.

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9860 to 2.0020.

Data releases for the next 24 hours:

AUD: RBA Governor Stevens Speaks

EUR: No data

GBP: CBI Industrial Order Expectations

NZD: No data

USD: No data