Market Analysis

At this point, the actual market activity has been mostly in line with the cycle projections. Below, we see that the daily S&P has traced out a rising wedge from which it has begun to break down. A divergence between price and momentum can be detected. But the cycles still point up, so there has been little follow through on the downside.

The daily S&P surpassed both the critical 38% and 50% retracement levels. Price sits just above the ‘last stop’ 78.6% and 81% retracement levels. A run at the old highs is likely by mid-month.

Daily S&P 500


S&P500 Rising Edge


Below are weekly and monthly oscillators of advances less declines. Both are overbought.

Weekly NYSE Advances Less Declines (10-Period M.A.)

NYSE AD Line



Monthly NYSE Advances Less Declines (10-Period M.A.)

NYSE AD Line



The weekly chart is now overbought.

Weekly S&P 500

S&P500 Trendlines



The monthly graph shows that the decline has hit the 23.6% retracement levels of 1 prior rally and the 38.2% retracement of another rally. The longer-term support and the projected lows are in the 1550-1600 range by the autumn.

S&P500 potential declines




This is an excerpt from the monthly Cycles Research Early Warning Service, a monthly e-mail report that analyzes the trends in the US stock market, the bond market, and the gold market. There are stock and ETF recommendations and high-probability S&P turning points.


 

Cycles Research Investments, LLC does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.1150

EUR/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.1150

EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel slightly above 1.1150 on Friday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, comments from central bank officials and the risk mood could drive the pair's action heading into the weekend.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3300, looks to post strong weekly gains

GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3300, looks to post strong weekly gains

GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day near 1.3300, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales data for August. The pair remains on track to end the week, which featured Fed and BoE policy decisions, with strong gains. 

GBP/USD News
Gold extends rally to new record-high above $2,610

Gold extends rally to new record-high above $2,610

Gold (XAU/USD) preserves its bullish momentum and trades at a new all-time high above $2,610 on Friday. Heightened expectations that global central banks will follow the Fed in easing policy and slashing rates lift XAU/USD.

Gold News
Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps. RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls. After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation.

Read more
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets

Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session. 

Read more
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know

VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.

Read More

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures