Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
So, nothing changes at Opec with the Gulf states maintaining their unequivocal stance that persistence with the policy will come right in the end. If they are right then one thing is for sure, we have a pretty dire few months ahead of us with huge world stockpiles, full-on production from those who can and soon to be added to by those who can’t but will be able to soon. With little sign of any demand pick-up until 2H 2016 at the earliest the equation looks very much like lower for longer which is the current phrase of the year.
With the rig count down 7 at 737 and oil down 10 at 545 US shale is undoubtedly hunkering down and with US production starting to fall there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The only other light is a long way down the tunnel, with $300bn of capex cuts the majors have set up a massive spike, when will it come, 2H 2016 or later…?
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