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COT Analysis for reporting date July 15th 2014
The COT report is a very useful but overlooked sentiment indicator. The way we use it at OrderFlowTrading helps us attain a longer term perspective on major capital flows, as well as a read on how overextended certain markets may be. It is part of a larger arsenal of sentiment indicators that we use.
Recent developments:
- DXY: Specs still long, printing a strong week for the USD.
- Amongs the comm-dolls, last week we saw inflows into both Aud and Cad.
- Amongst European FX, we saw an increase in short interest in both Euro and Gbp.
- Amongst Safe-Haven FX, we saw a loss if interst in both Chf and Jpy.
- Speculative interest is highest in Gbp overall and lowest in Eur overall.
- Most crowded trades: Nzd(FX), Crude (Commodities).
Comments & most intersting charts:
The AUD is still registering an extreme long sentiment situation and the %Long is still relatively high, hence supporting the case for some profit taking. Whilst we are still in a range, we need some confirmation like a break of the recent support ledge.
Source: Tradingview.com
AudUsd Daily chart
NzdUsd has finally decided to give us some sign of profit-taking and downwards momentum. We were expecting it sooner or later, and even if there was no extreme sentiment to be registered last week, the %Long went above 70% and we also have price action to help.
Source: Tradingview.com
NzdUsd Weekly chart
Cad continues to gain interest amongst the spec community and last week we printed a dragonfly doji that would indicate some more Cad strength, in the face of the already extreme long situation. Given the contrasting evidence, this is the least convincing situation and we would not be surprized to see further Cad losses.
Source: tradingview.com
UsdCad Weekly chart
In other news:
- ZB has flipped back to positive, as we expected.
- Euro is still extremely short into this support ledge at the 1.3500s. There may be some evidence for tactical bullish momentum on the back of this extreme sentiment and a daily bullish dragonfly doji from friday, but the opportunity may be better observed on EurNzd – benefitting from “the bird's” fresh downwards momentum.
To sum up: watch AudUsd, NzdUsd, UsdCad and EurNzd this week.
Catch you next week!
The COT report is a very useful but overlooked sentiment indicator. The way we use it at OrderFlowTrading helps us attain a longer term perspective on major capital flows, as well as a read on how overextended certain markets may be. It is part of a larger arsenal of sentiment indicators that we use.
Recent developments:
- DXY: Specs still long, printing a strong week for the USD.
- Amongs the comm-dolls, last week we saw inflows into both Aud and Cad.
- Amongst European FX, we saw an increase in short interest in both Euro and Gbp.
- Amongst Safe-Haven FX, we saw a loss if interst in both Chf and Jpy.
- Speculative interest is highest in Gbp overall and lowest in Eur overall.
- Most crowded trades: Nzd(FX), Crude (Commodities).
Comments & most intersting charts:
The AUD is still registering an extreme long sentiment situation and the %Long is still relatively high, hence supporting the case for some profit taking. Whilst we are still in a range, we need some confirmation like a break of the recent support ledge.
Source: Tradingview.com
AudUsd Daily chart
NzdUsd has finally decided to give us some sign of profit-taking and downwards momentum. We were expecting it sooner or later, and even if there was no extreme sentiment to be registered last week, the %Long went above 70% and we also have price action to help.
Source: Tradingview.com
NzdUsd Weekly chart
Cad continues to gain interest amongst the spec community and last week we printed a dragonfly doji that would indicate some more Cad strength, in the face of the already extreme long situation. Given the contrasting evidence, this is the least convincing situation and we would not be surprized to see further Cad losses.
Source: tradingview.com
UsdCad Weekly chart
In other news:
- ZB has flipped back to positive, as we expected.
- Euro is still extremely short into this support ledge at the 1.3500s. There may be some evidence for tactical bullish momentum on the back of this extreme sentiment and a daily bullish dragonfly doji from friday, but the opportunity may be better observed on EurNzd – benefitting from “the bird's” fresh downwards momentum.
To sum up: watch AudUsd, NzdUsd, UsdCad and EurNzd this week.
Catch you next week!
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