Expectations Lead the Decline
- Although the decline in January gave back all of December’s gains, the biggest decline was seen in expectations for a better economy, down 12 points to a net 0 percent. This is a volatile series and does not necessarily reflect current activity, but should be monitored to see if reduced optimism spills over into plans to expand. A net 13 percent of firms reported now is a good time to expand, down slightly from December’s high.
Continued Improvement in Labor Market
- A net 14 percent of firms reported plans to hire in the next three months. Although this number is down slightly from December’s post-recession high of 15 percent, it is still relatively strong and indicative of positive momentum in the labor market.
- A solid net 25 percent of firms reported higher compensation in January. Although the percent of firms planning to increase compensation softened, it is still fairly strong at a net 12 percent.
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EUR/USD consolidates weekly gains above 1.1150
EUR/USD moves up and down in a narrow channel slightly above 1.1150 on Friday. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, comments from central bank officials and the risk mood could drive the pair's action heading into the weekend.
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.3300, looks to post strong weekly gains
GBP/USD trades modestly higher on the day near 1.3300, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales data for August. The pair remains on track to end the week, which featured Fed and BoE policy decisions, with strong gains.
Gold extends rally to new record-high above $2,610
Gold (XAU/USD) preserves its bullish momentum and trades at a new all-time high above $2,610 on Friday. Heightened expectations that global central banks will follow the Fed in easing policy and slashing rates lift XAU/USD.
Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap
SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps. RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls. After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates on hold after July’s hike shocked markets
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term interest rate target between 0.15% and 0.25% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review. The decision is set to be announced during the early Asian session.
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