Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
A sharp move to the upside took the euro above the resistance at $1.2530 which was a first move above a key lower high within the old downtrend and adds further weight to the improving outlook. However, the bulls will still be cautious for a couple of reasons. Turning lower from $1.2569, the key resistance at $1.2600 remains intact and the buyers just lost some of the intraday momentum of the morning to close around the mid-point of the candle. The move is also back below the $1.2530 resistance too. On the intraday hourly chart there is a level of support around $1.2480 which was a breakout level and the bulls will hope can act as support now, but if this decisively fails then a drop back towards the next support at $1.2415 could be seen. The added element into the mix is the impact of the FOMC this evening. Trading could settle down in front of the decision, but if the Fed changes its stance in the hawkish direction (which many are expecting) there would conceivably be a sharp move to the downside. Support comes in at $1.2357 and the key low at $1.2245.
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