Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
GOOD MORNING!
EQUITIES
Globally, all the equity markets are in a pause mode, waiting for the US GDP to come out later tonight. It may snap out of it soon to make a decisive move.
Dow (16272.65, +0.46%) keeps consolidating in a 150 points range and may well rise further towards 16400. The Nikkei (14917.37, -0.04%) has also seen a very good rise, but could face some Channel Resistance in the 15100-200 region.
The Shanghai (2045, -0.11%) is trying to find support at 2020-15 after breaking below 2050 contrary to our expectation. Holding 2015, it may bounce towards 2090 once again.
The Dax (9588.33, -0.76%) is stuck in a range of 9500-9700. A rise past 9700-9800, if seen, could take the market up towards 10000.
The Nifty (6238.80, +0.62%) bears face a a make or break time as they must attack from the 6230-6265 zone and break 6150 or else they would have to concede defeat to the bulls as a sustained move above 6265 would open the doors to 6300-6350 but we prefer going step by step for the moment.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1332) came off a bit from 1336.30 but is in an overall uptrend. It may rise further towards 1350-1400 in the coming weeks while above 1300.
Silver (21.27) is trading lower as the resistance near 22.18 holds well. We may see some consolidation in the 21-21.5 levels before rising towards 22.5-23.
Copper (3.248) has risen for the first session this week on concern that the mines supply from Indonesia would drop. A sustained break above 3.25 would ensure further rise; else we may see movements within 3.20-3.25 levels.
Brent (108.85) is trading lower and may test support near 108 from where it may bounce back targeting 111-112.5 in the long term. Overall it is in a near term uptrend.
Nymex WTI (102.16) continues to remain ranged for now. While moving sideways, there are equal chances of a fall to support near 101 levels or a rise to resistance near 103.29. Need to break this ranged pattern to decide further moves.
CURRENCIES
Just like the equity markets, the major currency pairs are showing very mute action too with little change.
Dollar Index (80.26) broke above 80.45 but soon retreated again contrary to the expectation. A retest of sub-80 levels is possible before any kind of sustainable bounce.
The Euro (1.3708) also broke down below 1.3685 but swiftly bounced back in absence of any follow through selling, implying inherent strength. It may extend the bounce to 1.3775 and breaking above it, to 1.3850.
Dollar-Yen (101.85) is testing the lower end of the range of 101.75-102.75. Holding 101.80-70, it may try to rally to 103.50-104 in the short term while the intermediate downtrend remains. The bearish momentum will return on a break below 101.80-101.40.
The Euro-Yen Cross (139.61) has pulled back exactly from our last support at 138.80 below which the bearish momentum may return. As long as 138.80 is holding, another rise towards 141 may materialize.
Pound (1.6679) is in a small correction of its major uptrend now which may extend to 1.6540-1.65 only if breaks the support of 1.66. It may reach 1.69-1.7050 after the current correction finishes. All the dips till 1.6470-80 may be bought into.
Aussie (0.8948) remains in a broad range of 0.89-0.91 and only a breakout from this range may give a trending move with a clear direction.
Dollar-Rupee (61.98) may open flat to negative near 61.90-95 today. It must hold above the support zone of 61.80-70 to keep the possibility of a rally to 62.40 alive.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.65%) has been pushed back from the resistance zone of 2.73%-2.75%. It can now target the support near 2.50%. The 10-5Yr yield differential (1.16%) is falling, targeting the support near 1.13%-1.14%, suggesting a fall in 10Yr yields.
The German 10Yr (1.57%) failed to bounce from the support zone of 1.63%-1.64% and dropped. We may see it dropping to 1.50%-1.45% if it fails to correct this current fall. The German-US 2Yr spread (-0.22%) is up slightly. The 10Yr spread (-1.03%) is also up and can go up to -1.00%.
The Japan 10Yr (0.59%) is up slightly. It can still target the support near 0.53%-0.55% while below 0.60%. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.06%) has fallen to test the support near 2.05%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yields (8.92%) is up and ranged between 8.75%-9.00%. Above 8.85% we can expect it to rise beyond 9.00%. We have the Indian GDP figures coming out today which will be closely watched and we may see a directional movement on Monday.
DATA TODAY
23:15 GMT or 4:45 IST JP PMI
...Previous 56.60 ...Actual 55.50
23:30 GMT or 5:00 IST JP Unemp
...Expected 3.70 % ...Previous 3.70 % ...Actual 3.70%
0:05 GMT or 5:35 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -6 ...Previous -7 ...Actual -7
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 12.0 % ...Previous 12.10 %
12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN GDP
...Previous - 4.80 %
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 2.60 % ...Previous 3.20 %
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST CA GDP
...Expected -0.20 % ...Previous 0.20 %
DATA YESTERDAY
EU Biz Climate
...Expected 101.00 ...Previous 100.00 ...Actual 101.20
US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected -0.70 % ...Previous -5.34 % ...Actual -0.97%
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.