Morning View:
Good morning from our wet and dreary Sydney office!
Stay safe!
Grexit Risk:
I keep banging on about it, but don’t get sucked into trading spikes on the back of headlines. If you read the word ‘Greece’ and you’re not looking at your Mum’s DVD collection then don’t trade it!
Last night as we head into the EU session, EUR/USD spiked down only to rally all through the US as traders realised that Greek risk is old news.
If you’re interested, the headline in question was that ECB staff are proposing to increase the ‘haircuts’ on Greek bank collateral that is offered in exchange for Emergency Liquidity Assistance from the Bank of Greece.
UK Trader Arrested for 2010 ‘Flash Crash':
The interesting story out this morning is that UK commodities trader Navinder Singh Sarao has been arrested in connection with the sharp spike down then up in the DJIA in 2010.
Sarao would ‘spoof’ (place fake orders that he had no intention of trading) the futures market by adding large orders on the sell side that he would cancel. These fake orders would increase the spread between the bid and ask price so that other traders would stay away from the best price.
You can read more by doing a quick Google search but this issue is nothing new or unusual. This happens thousands of times a day. To arrest Sarao is actually kind of laughable and just comes across as a massive scapegoating.
On the Calendar Today:
CPI data is the big release on the calendar today. The forecast is for the level to have stayed at record lows, putting pressure on the RBA to cut rates next month.
Tuesday:
AUD CPI
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
USD Existing Home Sales
USD Crude Oil Inventories
Chart of the Day:
I posted these GBP/USD charts yesterday in the Technical Analysis section of the Vantage FX News Centre. The descending channel on the daily chart caught my eye, especially the way price is stepping down between supply/demand levels.
GBP/USD Daily 1:
Click on chart to see a larger view.
GBP/USD Daily 1:
Click on chart to see a larger view.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0700 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range above 1.0700 in the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
USD/JPY stays above 156.00 after BoJ Governor Ueda's comments
USD/JPY holds above 156.00 after surging above this level with the initial reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the policy settings unchanged. BoJ Governor said weak Yen was not impacting prices but added that they will watch FX developments closely.
Gold price oscillates in a range as the focus remains glued to the US PCE Price Index
Gold price struggles to attract any meaningful buyers amid the emergence of fresh USD buying. Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer amid sticky inflation help revive the USD demand.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.